Closing Time (3/30)

By nichols33

A look at who is going to be getting save opportunities division by division. Average Draft Position courtesy of CBSSportsline.com.

AL East:

Boston: Jonathan Papelbon is downplaying concerns over his arm.  (ADP: 53.74) New York: Mariano Rivera is locked and ready to go. (ADP: 82.57) Tampa Bay: Troy Percival has looked very strong this spring coming off an injury shortened season. Take him late, but expect a trip or two to the DL. (ADP: 209.87) Toronto: B.J. Ryan is the man in for the Blue Jays. His poor spring might be a bit concerning but he is a very solid 2nd closer, not so much as your one. (ADP: 141.78) Baltimore: George Sherrill (ADP: 222.29) has looked horrible this spring and has even been quoted as saying he wouldn’t mind if Chris Ray (ADP: 231.02) started the season as the closer. Avoid both unless you are really digging for saves.

AL Central:

Chicago: Bobby Jenks is the big man for Ozzie. Lower end #1 closer, great #2. (ADP: 135.99) Cleveland: Kerry Wood is going one closer after Jenks in most drafts. I might take him ahead of Jenks but wouldn’t fault anybody for going the other way. Be sure to have a good back-up, Wood already has been injured. (ADP: 137.08) Kansas City: Joakim Soria is a top 5 closer. If Kansas City is as improved as Peter Gammons is saying…..more save opps! (ADP: 119.16) Detroit: Joel Zumaya is on his way to the DL. Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyon (ADP: 230.60) are stinking it up…..avoid everybody in Detroit. Minnesota: Joe Nathan is money. Has a case to be the first closer taken. (ADP: 76.12)

AL West:

Los Angeles: I like Brian Fuentes this year, I like him a lot. Yahoo.com has concerns with his low velocity this spring, but I’m not. The Angels’ style of play is condusive to close games and lots of save opps for Fuentes. (ADP: 129.22) Texas: Frank Francisco is a sleeper, draft him as your 2nd closer and watch him outperform the 10 closers taken right before him. He’s going far too late. (ADP: 197.58) Seattle: Brandon Morrow is being moved to the bullpen and immediately jumps up to a top 15 closer. Only injuries are holding him back from being a top 6 closer. (ADP: 146.11) Oakland: Joey Devine (ADP: 199.10) and Brad Ziegler (ADP: 219.04) are going to split closer duties to start the season. Devine has the better stuff and will most likely be the one to take the job full-time at some point this season.

NL East:

New York: KRod is ready to take the big apple by storm. His celebratory style is going to win the fans over so long he converts the majority of his early season save attempts. The Phillies fans are going to HATE Rodriguez. (ADP: 47.53) Philadelphia: Brad Lidge is closing in on the consective save record after converting every save last season. Should be the 5th or 6th closer taken. (ADP: 85.55) Atlanta: Mike Gonzalez (ADP: 183.81) appears to have the job over Rafeal Soriano. But his velocity issues this spring are concerning. Nothing more than a back-up closer or a 2nd closer in a deep league. Florida: Matt Lindstrom (ADP: 203.30) still hopes to be ready by opening day after his WBC injury. Leo Nunez will get any save opps if Lindstorm is not ready but Lindstrom is the man when he is back. Washington: Joel Hanrahan is going after guys on the DL, guys who are pushing 50 years young….don’t make that mistake. He has no competition and the Nationals improved offense may keep them in more games this year….if their pitching hasn’t yet give up 10 runs. (ADP: 217.17)

NL Central:

Chicago: The Cubs have named Kevin Gregg (ADP: 199.92) the team’s closer over Carlos Marmol (ADP: 128.70) ruining a number of Fantasy team’s draft. You had to see this coming….Sweet Lou loves the veterans. Marmol will be the closer by July 1st…..mark it dude. Cincinnati: Francisco Cordero is a quality #1 closer. Nothing else to say. (ADP: 159.70) Pittsuburgh: Matt Capps is underrated. He is going after Chad Qualls, Trevor Hoffman and Huston Street in some drafts….why I do not know. (ADP: 188.72) Houston: Jose Valverde is one of the last #1 closers on the board. He, along with Broxton, should close out the run of top end closers. (ADP: 132.66) Milwaukee: Trevor Hoffman (ADP: 186.38) is going to start the year on the DL. Carlos Villanueva will get the saves to start the season. St. Louis: Chris Perez (ADP: 229.78) was sent down to AAA earlier today leaving Jason Motte (ADP: 225.44) appears to have won the job but Ryan Franklin could get some save opps.

NL West:

Los Angeles: Jonathan Broxton should be one of the top closers in the game for the next 5 years. Feel comfortable with him as your first closer. (ADP: 122.75) San Francisco: Brian Wilson has a near 5 ERA last season but is getting plenty of love from the fantasy world. The Giants are improved this year which may open up some vital save opps for Wilson. (ADP: 140.00) Colorado: The Rockies look to be playing it smart and showcasing Huston Street (ADP: 188.01) for trade bait later in the season. Street will start the year as the closer over Manny Corpas (ADP: 242.97). San Diego: Heath Bell is the closer but how many save opps is he going to get in San Diego. They’ll be lucky to win 60 games this year. (ADP: 201.40) Arizona: Chad Qualls excelled in the closer role late last season and will be the closer in the desert to start the season. Be careful though…he is one of those guys who was underrated in February but has swung to the overrated category rather quickly. (ADP: 183.36)

Wieters being sent down…

by mrCane

According to CBSsportsline.com Matt Wieters is being reassigned Sunday to Triple A.  This doesn’t come as a shock to fantasy owners.  People have been drafting Wieters in spite of the fact that the catcher would possible miss the first couple months of the season.

Fantasy Advice:  Depending on the type of league your in, Wieters should be taking as a top 10 fantasy option.  Keeper leagues he is an absolute must.  Leagues with deep benches that would allow you to wait on him he is a great option as well.  He could make an Evan Longoria type impact at the catcher position by the end of the year.

Funny thing happened to Adrian Beltre on the way to the draft…

by notebook guy

…  he went from underrated to overrated.  He went from an average draft position of 201, or the 14th round, to pick 115, in the 8th round.  This is what can happen in your draft when someone is dubbed a “sleeper”.  The sleeper becomes a hot commodity on draft day and his thought to be great value late evaporates because he is not taken late.  On draft day his ADP was cut in half, did he start a new roids cycle recently?  Is he in the “best shape of his life”?  The answers are I don’t know and I sincerely doubt it but somehow this thought to be bargain 3B jumped 100 spots in the draft, a remarkable turn around.  Just something to consider in your draft, if there is a buzz about a player being a sleeper before your draft, chances are he’ll no longer be sleeping till late on your draft day.

5×5 Draft Recap – Part 4

By notebookguy

If you have read the “About Us” page on this blog you know that we are 5 guys that have been doing fantasy baseball together for over 10 years and this weekend was a BIG weekend. Saturday was a 12 team H2H points league draft that all 5 of us participated in and Sunday was a 15 team 5×5 Rotisserie league that all 5 of us participated in.

Since the H2H points league is a keeper league that allows draft pick trading it would be tough to explain why we did things where since each team had vastly different situations on draft day. But….the 5×5 draft was a start from scratch 5×5 league with 20 rosters spots where everybody starts. Over the next few days each of us will give a recap of our draft and hopefully provide some insight on what we were thinking and how it all panned out.

Team: Named after Hamsterdam in “The Wire”

Draft Position (Typical Serpentine Draft): 15th

My strategy going into the draft was to load up on bats early, preferably 5 category bats, and wait to fill out my pitching staff until the later rounds. Having the last pick in the draft, having a double pick, meant I couldn’t really set my sites on a particular player not knowing who would fall to me. In my mock drafts I mostly drafted 2 of Soriano, Beltran, and Prince, so that was the group I was prepared to take from, two 5 cat guys, and a slugging 1B, all 3 of which I obviously liked a lot. Position was not a huge concern but I did want to grab a decent SS before they all fell off the board.

Well my first 2 picks I never expected to fall to me. At the 15th and 16th picks I drafted Ian Kinsler(ADP 9) and Lance Berkman(ADP 15), 2 guys that rarely fell to me in my mock drafts. In fact, I never saw Kinsler at 15 in my mocks, and Berkman occasionally got to 15 but not very often. I was ecstatic about these picks a 5 category 2B, the best 2B in fantasy baseball in my opinion, and a slugging 1B that is a rock for 30 HR’s and 100 RBI’s, not to mention contributing very well in the other 3 cats most of the time.

I continued to get 5 category producers in the 3rd and 4th rounds with Brandon Phillips and Alex Rios. Phillips(ADP 30) being around 15 picks after he’s usually picked was a nice surprise, although I already had a 2B, I had to scoop this underrated potential 30-30 man, because everyone starts in this league and the numbers were too good to ignore. Rios fell into my plan as well, a 5 cat OF with upside. Needless to say I loved my first 4 picks, all fell into what I was looking for and were good values at the places I got them.

For my pitching staff I grabbed an ace, John Lackey, in the 5th round, filled out my top 3 of my pitching staff with Matt Cain(9th rd.), and Derek Lowe(11thrd.). Not a dominant top 3 but a good top 3 with some upside in Cain. Grabbing BJ Ryan(10thrd.) and Heath Bell(13thrd.) was better closers than I expected, but it may have cost the back end of my rotation because I ended up with Manny Parra(15th rd.) and Wandy Rodriguez(17thrd.) both of which I would’ve liked as a 5th starter but needing one of them as my 4thstarter was not in the plan, a problem I will fix with a deal for a starting pitcher.

The offense rounded out nicely getting some thunder in the middle rounds, Carlos Pena(5th rd.) and Jermaine Dye(8th rd.), will be nice power compliments to my top 4 picks. I also picked up one of the SS’s I was eyeing, Rafael Furcal(7th rd.), which was key giving me more SB’s, just have to keep an eye on his health. Jason Werth was a steal in the 12th round, another 5 category player to add to the mix.

My late round bats were guys I snagged late in most of my mock drafts Edwin Encarnacion(14thrd.) a 20+ HR 3B with upside, Shin-Soo Choo(16th rd.) a big upside OF, and Mike Jacobs(18th rd.) couldn’t believe this 30 HR 1B was still sitting there in the 18th round.

I am very happy with how my draft went. I would’ve liked to have drafted a better 4th starter and 3B, but no draft is going to go perfectly. I feel I have good balance in power and speed, good closers, and a good top 3 to my rotation, and I think I’m right there with anyone from day 1.

Projected Finish*: 3 out of 15 (89 total points)

(R: 14, HR: 12, RBI: 12, SB: 6, BA: 8, W: 2, Sv: 6, K: 6, ERA: 14, WHIP: 9)

* Based on Sportsline.com projections

5×5 Draft Recap – Part 3

By mrcane

If you have read the “About Us” page on this blog you know that we are 5 guys that have been doing fantasy baseball together for over 10 years and this weekend was a BIG weekend. Saturday was a 12 team H2H points league draft that all 5 of us participated in and Sunday was a 15 team 5×5 Rotisserie league that all 5 of us participated in.

Since the H2H points league is a keeper league that allows draft pick trading it would be tough to explain why we did things where since each team had vastly different situations on draft day. But….the 5×5 draft was a start from scratch 5×5 league with 20 rosters spots where everybody starts. Over the next few days each of us will give a recap of our draft and hopefully provide some insight on what we were thinking and how it all panned out.

Team: Hurricanes

Draft Position (Typical Serpentine Draft): 6th

Rounds 1, 2, 3: Putting my strategy to work worked great the first three rounds landing Jimmy Rollins, Alfonso Soriano and Matt Kemp. All guys are going to steal 25 with Rollins capable of 40. What makes it even better is that all three will hit 20 HR too.

Round 4 and 5: My fourth round pick was Joey Votto, who I feel went a little early but was a legit power hitter who I really coveted. I followed that up with a 5×5 guy in Bobby Abreu. I loved Abreu in that spot for his 100 20 100 20 ability. That gave me 4 out of my first 5 picks all being guys who contribute in all categories.

Round 6 and 7 I finally took my first couple pitchers in James Shields and Felix Hernandez. Getting two 1A type guys as this point while using my first 5 picks on hitters will no doubt pay off later on in the season.

Round 8 I was able to grab Adrian Beltre. I do feel this pick came a round or two early but my thoughts on this pick was getting a guy who can hit 25 hr and chip in with some SB as a weak position is extremely valuable. He is very consistent and happens to be in a walk year so I’m expecting some big things from Beltre.

Round 9 So I went back towards pitching getting Zach Grienke as my 3rd starter. I love Zach’s strike out potential (about 175) as a middle of the rotation guy. His peripherals are also great which are extremely important in a 5×5 league.

Round 10 I went back to the offense and grabbed James Loney, a young high upside guy who will bat .300. Being able to snag another guy who can hit 20hr and bat .300 at this stage of the draft was exciting.

Round 11-14 I went all pitching and was able to land John Danks, Randy Johnson, Trevor Hoffman and Frank Francisco respectively. My rotation now has 5 guys who can top 150 K with low whips. Since I don’t consider saves to be very important in a draft being able to land two guys with definite starting jobs to start the season is huge. Carlos Marmol went about 6 rounds earlier and he doesn’t have a starting position yet.

The rest of my draft filled out with Jim Thome, Pablo Sandoval, Brandon Lyon, Jose Guillen, Alexi Casilla and Ramon Hernandez (who could be top 10 playing in Cinncinati). I completely punted 2B and C because no one of significance fell to me in the draft. The guy I thought I could get, Alexi Ramirez went three picks before I could take him. After that I had my mind made up to wait until the end of the draft and I wound up with a guy in Casilla who can steal 20 while hitting at the top of the Twins order and the aforementioned Hernandez. Grabbing Thome and Guillen provided a little punch and Sandoval should chip in to counter the low batting averages.

Overall I thought my strategy worked out perfectly. I was able to get a lot of guys I targeted, now we just need to wait and see if my intuitions were correct.

My thoughts going into the draft was to acquire as many guys who contribute in 5 categories as possible. I’m not necessarily looking for guys with good averages, just trying to avoid those with bad averages. Drafting hitting first was my number one priority, as I feel that pitching is deep enough to avoid for the first several rounds. Another strategy I was employing was to avoid closers for as long as possible. One category guys are not that valuable. I ended up with 3 guys, all who should close for there respective teams. As soon as the season starts I trade a closer for a hitter, and usually the hitter is better than the guy I would have taken with my 17th round pick.

Projected Finish*: 15 out of 15 (62 total points)

(R: 4, HR: 6, RBI: 7, SB: 9, BA: 2, W: 3, Sv: 13, K: 7, ERA: 1, WHIP: 10)

* Based on Sportsline.com projections

5×5 Draft Recap – Part 2

By tallkid1

If you have read the “About Us” page on this blog you know that we are 5 guys that have been doing fantasy baseball together for over 10 years and this weekend was a BIG weekend. Saturday was a 12 team H2H points league draft that all 5 of us participated in and Sunday was a 15 team 5×5 Rotisserie league that all 5 of us participated in.

Since the H2H points league is a keeper league that allows draft pick trading it would be tough to explain why we did things where since each team had vastly different situations on draft day. But….the 5×5 draft was a start from scratch 5×5 league with 20 rosters spots where everybody starts. Over the next few days each of us will give a recap of our draft and hopefully provide some insight on what we were thinking and how it all panned out.

Team: Side Burns

Draft Position (Typical Serpentine Draft): 14th

I had the 14th pick in a 15 team league in a snake draft. Not the ideal spot since I miss out on the all of the elite players like Hanley, Pujols and Wright but but ok because I get two of the top 17 picks. I ended up getting Carlos Beltran at pick 14 which I was happy about because of his five category abilities and consistency over the past few years. Then at pick 17 I passed on Matt Holliday and Evan Longoria and grabbed Justin Morneau as I felt he was the safer pick.

I wanted a top 10 pitcher so I grabbed Roy Oswalt (ranked exactly 10th on my list) at the end of the third round and then I took Carl Crawford at the top of the fourth round because I felt he was the best player available (I had been hoping for Brian Roberts but he went a few picks earlier).

At this point I had two outfielders, a first basemen and a starting pitcher so I felt the need to start filling in the infield with solid players (especially since it’s a 15 team league). I took VMart in the 5th, Cano in the 6th and Peralta in the 7th.

In the 8th I grabbed Dice-K but I somewhat regret that pick as Adrian Beltre was still on the board and there were other pitchers like Matt Cain, Jared Weaver, Javier Vazquez and Ted Lilly that I could have drafted in the 9th or 10th round. In fact, I did pick Vazquez in the 9th to round out my third starter behind Oswalt and Dice-k. I then made another pick I wasn’t too happy with taking Brian Fuentes in the 11th. I typically follow the theory that you should punt closers because they tend to be very unstable outside of the top five or so but I panicked and drafted one because there had been a run.

Looking at my team at this point I felt good about pitching but I felt my offense, while mostly balanced, was short on power. So I took Rick Ankiel in the 12th thinking he can add 25+ HR as my 3rd OF. Then I went for the remaining 3B in Alex Gordon and Mike Lowell to fill that position, an obvious weak spot on my team unless Gordon really breaks out or Lowell somehow returns to 2007 form – with either scenario unlikely.

From here on out I wanted to add depth with balanced players that wouldn’t hurt me in any major category so I drafted Casey Kotchman, Scott Baker, Kyle Lohse and Jeff Francouer. Then I rounded out the draft with a few gambles on young players – Brandon Wood, Chris Perez and Matt LaPorta hoping either would break camp with starting spots, if not it’s waiver wire time.

Overall I have a pretty balanced team with Beltran, Crawford, Morneau and Oswalt leading the pack as players who can help in several categories. However I jumped the gun and left myself hanging at 3B (a shallow position I blogged about!). The bottom line is that you can build a solid team even with such a late pick in a 15 team league.

Projected Finish*: 14th out of 15 (68 total points)

(R: 10, HR: 10, RBI: 15, SB: 3, BA: 9, W: 4, Sv: 5, K: 2, ERA: 3, WHIP: 7)

* Based on Sportsline.com projections

5×5 Draft Recap – Part 1

By nichols33

If you have read the “About Us” page on this blog you know that we are 5 guys that have been doing fantasy baseball together for over 10 years and this weekend was a BIG weekend. Saturday was a 12 team H2H points league draft that all 5 of us participated in and Sunday was a 15 team 5×5 Rotisserie league that all 5 of us participated in.

Since the H2H points league is a keeper league that allows draft pick trading it would be tough to explain why we did things where since each team had vastly different situations on draft day. But….the 5×5 draft was a start from scratch 5×5 league with 20 rosters spots where everybody starts. Over the next few days each of us will give a recap of our draft and hopefully provide some insight on what we were thinking and how it all panned out.

Team: Named after the great Darryl Strawberry

Draft Position (Typcial Serpentine Draft): 11th

Having the 11th pick I was hoping on scoring either Jimmy Rollins or Chase Utley. Well, mrcane was sitting with the 6th pick and we all know he loves Rollins so he went #6. In position #9, dtb23 (a Phils fan) was ready to scoop up Utley but he went one pick earlier at #8. Since I really wanted a 2B or SS I was planning on taking Kinsler….but Ryan Braun fell into my lap at pick #11. I thought about Beltran for a brief moment but went with Braun.

Coming back at pick #20 I was hoping on Evan Longoria but he went a couple picks early so I kind of went a bit early on Dustin Pedroia but I wanted a top 3 2B or top 3 SS and this was my only chance.

Going into the 3rd round I was happy to see a number of SPs flying off the board as my strategy was to put off pitching until at least the 6th round. For my pick in the 3rd I was eyeing Carlos Quentin and Matt Kemp but both went before it got back to me. With Aramis Ramirez sitting on the board I ensured my team of having a strong infield by snagging him in that spot.

For the 4th round I had some power and a bit of speed in Pedroia but I was looking to get a speedster and was eyeing Carl Crawford or Jacoby Ellsbury. Crawford went 3 picks before me so I settled in with Ellsbury.

For the 5th round I really wanted Stephen Drew to fall to me. He went about 8 picks before it got to me so I passed on the temptation to take Rafeal Furcal and instead solidified some power with Adam Dunn. I would have taken Bobby Abreu but he went 5 picks earlier to mrcane. Victor Martinez was also a consideration but I figured I’d be able to get him next pick about 10 picks away.

Turns out I was wrong as VMart went to tallkid1 and I chose Carlos Delgado because 1Bs were flying off the board and he was the only one left that I would be happy on as my starter.

Heading into the 7th I really needed to take some pitching since I planned on starting that in the 6th. There was still a number of “aces” on the board (Billingsly, Lester, Shields, Zambrano, Liriano, Gallardo, and F. Hernadez) all of whom went before my pick. I then chose Scott Kazmir for his Ks and followed up with Josh Johnson for his upside in the 8th round.

9th round I continued my quest to fill out my staff by selecting Joba Chamberlain. I was scouting Brett Myers but he went 2 picks earlier which I was fine with since I got him in my points league draft on Saturday. I really like Myers this year.

For the 1oth I was going to take my 1st closer and planned on Brian Fuentes. Mike Scioscia loves giving save opportunities only to his closer and their style of play really sets up a number of close games  so I think Fuentes is in line for quite a few saves this year. He went 2 picks before me and I reluctantly selected Kerry Wood.

Wood and I have a history. During his prime when he was the next Roger Clemens I once traded Nomar Garciaparra for Wood and Barry Larkin in a keeper league.  Wood proceeded to tear ligaments in his elbow 2 months later and Nomar became one of the top fantasy players for the next few years while I sat with an aging Barry Larkin. I must say I’m not a big fan of Wood.

My next few picks I took Ryan Doumit (can’t believe he was still there in the 11th), Matt Capps (wanted to ensure I got 2 guys guaranteed the job), Lastings Milledge (still wish he was a Met, love his power/speed combo) and Oliver Perez in the 14th (Ks!!! and his inconsistency doesn’t hurt as much in a total year tally league like it does in a H2H league).

For the rest of the draft there was slim pickings so I wanted to focus on young upside guys and guys who may be under-valued due to previous injuries. In the 15th I took Jeremy Hermida (great spring, last chance for this one-time stud prospect). I then took Max Scherzer (upside!!) and Todd Helton (great spring, is his back OK?).

I still did not have a shortstop and guys I was targeting for late in the draft (Yunel Escobar, Elvis Andrus, Ryan Theriot) had just come off the board so I continued to punt that category and took Jason Kubel (full time DH in Min, 27 years old). In the 19th I finally took a SS with Christain Guzman over Khalil Greene because I needed the avg more than the power.

I rounded out my draft with Edwin Jackson of the Tigers. I love this guy this year as a sleeper and I’ve so far got him in all 3 drafts I’ve done. I plan on scoring him as well in my 4th and final draft tomorrow night.

Overall I think my team came out pretty good. I wanted a better ace and I think I abandoned stolen bases a bit too much after the Milledge pick but I can pick some SBs during the season. If Josh Johnson and Joba Chamberlain bust out into super stardom this season and Kazmir stays healthy, I will have a real good team and do Darryl Strawberry proud!!

Projected Finish*: 6th out of 15 (81 total points)

(R: 9, HR: 9, RBI: 5, SB: 5, BA: 10, W: 6, Sv: 9, K: 14, ERA: 9, WHIP: 5)

* Based on Sportsline.com projections

Spend Your Money Wisely

by mrCane

The idea of every draft is to get players at optimum value.  You don’t want to draft a player too soon.  You don’t want to waste a 2nd round pick on a guy you can grab in the 4th round.  Many times while drafting you begin to notice that the position is becoming vacant.  The top guys are going off the board, your pick is coming up and because all the magazines have Mr.X rated high you reach and take him while gritting your teeth.  In this list I’ve included there are guys with some counterparts at their positions and the recent ADP(Average Draft Position).  You can be the judge of who you want and what your willing to pay for the player.

C  Ramon Hernandez, ADP 277 vs Ryan Doumitt ADP 140     What this says is if you wait over 100 spots you could have the exact same stats for much cheaper.  Doumitt had some great hot streaks last year and has climbed the rankings because of the success.  But, Hernandez should match him in every offensive category so why pay extra?

1B  Billy Butler, ADP 246  vs  James Loney,  ADP  125     Loney has proved himself a little more but tops out at about 20hr.  Both guys will hit for the same average but Butler has the ability to hit for more power, as he did in the minors.  Butler has great plate discipline and its only a matter of time.  After the big dogs are gone at first take a careful look at what Loney can give you and ask yourself if its worth it?

2B  Aaron Hill, ADP 301  vs  Robinson Cano, ADP 97     Even after a huge bust of a season last year Cano is still top 100?  He doesn’t hit for power, doesn’t steal bases and proved he is capable of batting under .300.  He has always struck out a lot and continues to be drafted high.  Hill, if recovered from post concussion syndrome, is capable of a 20 hr season; 200 picks later!  Just monitor his health.

3B  Brandon Wood, ADP 332  vs Edwin Encarnacion, ADP 163     Ok, so Wood hasn’t panned out yet, well that is going to change.  If he bats .250 with 25hr isn’t that the same as Edwin?  For half the price? 

ss  Michael Young, ADP 98 vs  Derek Jeter, ADP 71   This isn’t a huge gap but because it is so early in the draft it is imperative to get these picks right.  These guys have the exact same numbers!  But Jeter is about two rounds earlier?  Jeter is a big household name, but average in the world of fantasy.

OF  Chase Headley, ADP 331 vs  Justin Upton, ADP 181    Another case of a big time name getting in the way of what actually happens on the field.  What is going to happen, their numbers will be the same.  Headley was a monster prospect that everyone has somehow forgot about this year.

OF  Adam Jones, ADP 266  vs  Andre Ethier, ADP 133     I’ll put it in very simple terms, Jones is better.  There, I said it.  He will have just as many homers, about 25 more SB and the other numbers should be about the same.  Why double the price?

OF  Fred Lewis, ADP 310  vs  David DeJesus, ADP 180  Here is another head scratcher, Lewis has better numbers.  The only difference between these two guys is Lewis will steal more bases.

SP  Chris Volstad, ADP 260  vs  Fausto Carmona, ADP 164     Fausto had a big year a two years ago.  Last year he was injured so he gets a pass.  But, regardless of the injury these guys are clones.  Non-strike out pitchers who will have good ERA’s.  One you pay for some name recognition, the other you don’t.

RP  Joel Hanranhan, ADP 282  vs  Brian Wilson, ADP 140      Why anyone would draft a closer with a near 5 ERA that high is beyond my thinking.  Joel is going to have a better ERA and more K’s than Wilson.  I know in a 5×5 those innings aren’t so great where the ERA hurts you, but whats better, a 4.00 or a 5.00?

How are you going to spend your money when it’s crunch time?

Fantasy Baseball 5 Category Players

ARod loves 5 Category Players

By nichols33

Any seasoned fantasy baseball owner will tell you to target 5 category players early in the draft in 5×5 leagues. There are some strategies where you pick pitching early and others where you don’t pick pitchers until the 6th round at the earliest. Some try to get power early and pick up steals late. Regardless of which strategy you choose, in a 5×5 league guys who can drive in runs, hit for average, hit the long ball, score runs and steal some bags are gold. Here are some buckets based on last year’s stats:

Players who hit over .280, 75 R, 20 HR, 75 RBI, 10 SB

Player	BA	R	HR	RBI	SB
Carlos Beltran (OF, NYM)	.284	116	27	112	25
David Wright (3B, NYM)	.302	115	33	124	15
Lance Berkman (1B, HOU)	.312	114	29	106	18
Chase Utley (2B, PHI)	.292	113	33	104	14
Matt Holliday (OF, OAK)	.321	107	25	88	28
Alex Rodriguez (3B, NYY)	.302	104	35	103	18
Nick Markakis (OF, BAL)	.306	106	20	87	10
Jason Bay (OF, BOS)	.286	111	31	101	10
Bobby Abreu (OF, ANA)	.296	100	20	100	22
Ryan Braun (OF, MIL)	.285	92	37	106	14
Alfonso Soriano (OF, CHC)	.280	76	29	75	19

These guys just missed that list last year:

Player	BA	R	HR	RBI	SB
Hanley Ramirez (SS, FLA)	.301	125	33	67	35
Curtis Granderson (OF, DET)	.280	112	22	66	12
Alexei Ramirez (2B, CHW)	.290	65	21	77	13

You can bet Hanley will be make the list this year, especially if he moves to the 3 hole in the Marlins line-up.

 

20 / 20 Players (20 HRs & 20 SBs)

Player	BA	R	HR	RBI	SB
Bobby Abreu (OF, ANA)	.296	100	20	100	22
Carlos Beltran (OF, NYM)	.284	116	27	112	25
Corey Hart (OF, MIL)	.268	76	20	91	23
Matt Holliday (OF, OAK)	.321	107	25	88	28
Nate McLouth (OF, PIT)	.276	113	26	94	23
Brandon Phillips (2B, CIN)	.261	80	21	78	23
Hanley Ramirez (SS, FLA)	.301	125	33	67	35
Grady Sizemore (OF, CLE)	.268	101	33	90	38
Jayson Werth (OF, PHI)	.273	73	24	67	20

 

If you are willing to pick up steals later in the draft or plan on picking up the hottest young speedster during the year here are 4 Category guys (R, HR, SB, RBI):

Players who hit over .300, 75 R, 20 HR, 75 RBI

Player	BA	R	HR	RBI	SB
Albert Pujols (1B, STL)	.357	100	37	116	7
Manny Ramirez  (OF, LAD)	.332	102	37	121	3
Milton Bradley (OF, CHC)	.321	78	22	77	5
Matt Holliday (OF, OAK)	.321	107	25	88	28
Kevin Youkilis (1B, BOS)	.312	91	29	115	3
Lance Berkman (1B, HOU)	.312	114	29	106	18
Mark Teixeira  (1B, NYY)	.308	102	33	121	2
Josh Hamilton (OF, TEX)	.305	98	32	130	9
Xavier Nady (OF, NYY)	.305	76	25	97	2
Aubrey Huff (1B, BAL)	.304	96	32	108	4
Vladimir Guerrero (OF, ANA)	.303	85	27	91	5
Alex Rodriguez (3B, NYY)	.302	104	35	103	18
David Wright (3B, NYM)	.302	115	33	124	15
Justin Morneau (1B, MIN)	.300	97	23	129	0

CC vs. Lincecum, who’s the pick?

by mrCane and notebook guy

mrCane: Why I’ll take Tim Lincecum:  Let me start by saying there is a reason why we draft hitters before pitchers, because they are sure bets.  With that being said Tim Lincecum should be the top pitcher taken in this years draft, partly because Johan has some elbow trouble, but mostly because he is the best pitcher available, more so than CC Sabathia.  I know what your saying, he’s small, he’ll breakdown….well Pedro was small too.  At the age of 24 Pedro’s numbers were 3.70ERA  1.20WHIP  222K   216IP

…..if your paying attention Lincecums were much better at 2.62 ERA  265K  1.17 WHIP 227IP.  Now if Lincecum follows in Pedro’s footsteps this upcoming year will be historic because Martinez had a ridiculous ERA of 1.90 at the age of 25!

Why do I compare Lincecum to Pedro?  For obvious reason’s, they are built more like chess players instead of baseball players.  Both are listed at a very generous 5’11” and neither top 190lbs.  Right now Tim Lincecum has a 97mph fastball, and that’s not even his best pitch. He uses one of the most devastating curves in the game to give opposing batters no chance, evident by his 265K.  Size is not a problem!

Last year Lincecum had a better ERA, more strike outs, better k/9 ratio and a Quality Start % of 79 compared to CC’s 71%, threw 200 less pitches leaving the only slight ( no pun intended) against Timmy; his frame.  Lets not get too crazy and compare him to a future hall of famer but lets no write him off because he doesn’t way 290lbs(not a typo).  How can we decline Lincecum the honor of #1 rated pitcher because he’s too small but Sabathia doesn’t get the same ridicule with his over indulgence of nutrients?  I’ll take the next best thing as Sabathia crumbles (much like in the playoffs, 7.92 career ERA!) in the New York pressure cooker while Lincecum coasts in the NL West.

notebookguy: Why I take CC: CC Sabathia is now the number 1 pitcher in fantasy baseball due to Johan Santana’s elbow injury.  In CC’s 8 seasons, hard to believe considering he won’t be 29 until the end of July, he has averaged 32 starts a year, making 30+ starts every year but one, in which he made 28 starts.  Why is this important?  Outside of the closer position, starting pitching is the most volatile spot on your fantasy baseball team, and this guy is as sure a thing to be out there every 5th day as they come.  It’s not just his reliability that makes him so great, he’s also got the numbers to back it up.  A 3 year average of 32 starts, 16 W, 211 K, 3.03 ERA, and a 1.14 WHIP shows that he helps immensely in all 4 starting pitching categories.  His track record is impeccable, he’s still in his prime, and he pitches for a very good team in a park that favors lefthanded pitchers.  What more do you need?

The argument against Lincecum is simple, no track record.  His numbers were the best in the game last year, there is no arguing that, but he jumped 80 innings over his previous career high, never a good sign for a 24 year old in his first major league season.  There is no telling how the extensive work load of last season will effect him but looking at pitchers with similar jumps in their workloads from previous seasons is not encouraging.  His size is also a concern.  He is a little guy with a violent windup, not usually a good combo for longevity.  He also has a horrendous offensive team supporting him, Bengie Molina hitting cleanup?  I need a little more offensive support than that for my ace.

I’ve heard the comparisons to Pedro Martinez and to me, that’s just foolish.  Pedro Martinez is the best pitcher I’ve ever seen in my 20 odd years of watching baseball.  He was Sandy Koufax in the STEROIDS era.  When guys were hitting 60+ HR’s Pedro had an ERA under 2.  He struck out 300 guys a year.  Tim Lincecum has had one very good season and his numbers didn’t sniff what Pedro did in his prime.  Don’t believe the hype, go safe with your ace, and take the Big Man in the Bronx.