Tag Archives: Adam Jones

AL at a Glance 4/9

by mrCane

Before we start this, I want to point out that everything we know can end without warning.  Nick Adenhart, a 22 year old pitcher from the Anaheim Angels was killed this morning when his car was struck by a van.  I obviously don’t know Nick, his friends, his family but want to acknowledge the tradgedy of what took place.  No one deserves to pass at the age of 22.

So far in this young season there have some performers who have stood out.  Many are people you would expect by their draft position, others are nice surprises.  Some we can expect this trend to continue, while others are much less likely to continue with their current performance.

Adam Lind has 2 HR including his 6rbi game against Detroit.  He is a kid I expect will continue his current trend, though not at this pace.  Two Detroit pitchers, Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello, have had very similar results.  The difference between the two is many owners drafted Verlander as a top 40 pitcher while Porcello in any league but a keeper probably went undrafted.  Fantasy Advice:  Ride the Lind wave, I feel like he is going to have a very good year; say 20hr 85rbi.  Verlander you should dump and get as much as you can from any owner willing to pay for the name.  Porcello is a guy strictly for keepers as he plays on a team with an awful bullpen.

Most of the Minnesota pitching staff has been medicore, which is suprising because they were at home against a lowly Mariners offense.  Glen Perkins was the one exception going 8IP 1ER.  Brandon Morrow finally got his first save of the year after his loss of control in his first appearance.  Fantasy Advice:  I like all the Minnesota pitchers, mostly for matchups.  Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey are all guys I start every week.  Glen Perkins and Nick Blackburn are decent larger mixed league options for the right match up.

A couple things I want to point out from the Orioles verse Yankees series.  An offense of Brian Robers, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis and Aubrey Huff will cause fits for many of the teams in the AL EAST, and this is without Matt Wieters who hasn’t been called up yet.   Adam Jones in particular looked good, driving the ball to right center off Sabathia.  While CC looked bad, AJ Burnett was able to be quite effective going 51/3 IP with 6 strike outs.  The notoriously slow starters Robinson Cano and Mark Teixeira both homered.  Nick Swisher even got the start and took advantage with a home run of his own.  Fantasy Advice:  Jump on the Jones bandwagon, I have been since spring training.  He will be 20/20 this year.  Be patient with CC but Burnett is a guy I never like on my team, deal him after a few good outings and avoid the DL stint.

Tampa Bay pitchers Matt Garza and Scott Kazmir looked great against the Red Sox.  With James Shields Tampa has 3 top 30 starting pitchers.  Throw in the ever steady Andy Sonnanstine and David Price waiting in the wings; Tampa has the horses to repeat as Division champs.  David Ortiz performance thus far is discouraging, even with the very small sample size.  The Red Sox and fantasy homers need Big Papi to approach 30hr this year to justify his draft day value.  Fantasy Advice:  Look for a guy like Garza, you might be able to still get him cheap, you won’t in a couple weeks.  If you can get some name recognition from a Big Papi fan, deal the slugger away.  It kills me as a sox fan but I think Ortiz is only good for 25hr this year, not worth his draft day price.

Kyle Davies was a source of hype as a sleeper pitcher and he lived up to that bill in his first start.  Unfortunately he was matched pitch by pitch by John Danks.  Jim Thome was a slugger I targeted late on draft day.  I feel Thome is a lock for 30hr with the possibilty of hitting more depending on his health.  The Royals pitching with Meche, Grienke and Davies is actually a formidable 1, 2, 3 combination with a closer to slam the door.  Fantasy Advice:  Danks I like to be a top 35 pitcher by years end and Davies seems like a viable larger mix league option now. 

The Cleveland Indians will not win the AL Central.  They don’t have the pitching to pull it off.  Carl Pavano is their third starter and Cliff Lee will regress from last years stellar performance.  Their offense is good, evidence by Grady Sizemores 2 hr game, but not great with lots of guys who strike out.  Kevin Millwood looked good in his first outing and has an offense to back him up.  Nelson Cruz is on the board with a 2 hr game, he may have finally arrived.  Fantasy Advice:  Sell sell sell Cliff Lee if you can, while I don’t think is as bad as his first start, I do see a 4 ERA and 12 wins, not what you expect if you draft him as your number 1 pitcher.  Kelly Shoppach is the guy behind the plate, check your waiver wire for a 20hr catcher. 

It didn’t take long for Brian Fuentes to raise doubts about his ability to close games in the AL.  With two great arms in back of him (Jose Arredondo, Scott Shields) he won’t have much of a leash with Mike Scioscia.  Oaklands young guns, Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, are both in the starting rotation and Brad Ziegler is the closer with Joey Devine out of the picture and in Dr. Andrews office.  Fantasy Advice:  I’m not sold on Fuentes, if you have a spot on your bench I would grab Arredondo.  Stay away from the young Oakland pitchers, though they will have good outings, they will be inconsistent and frustrating.

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Early Season thoughts…

by notebookguy

Baseball season is finally here, let’s take a look at some of the early developments.  I know a game or 2 doesn’t mean much but when looking for the next McLouth, Quentin, Cl. Lee, and so on, it’s time to start looking.

Adam Jones, the speedy CF for the O’s, was on base 5 times against CC and the Yanks on opening day, with 3 hits and 2 walks.

Fantasy Baseball Advice:  Jones had alot of hype behind him coming into the year, I was one that was buying it but not completely sold, this is a good start.  If you grabbed him in your draft, see if an overzealous owner is will to buy high, if not, take a wait and see approach, a sleeper for 15-20 HR’s and 20+ SB’s.

Jay Bruce put a nice swing on a Johan Santana pitch to hit it out of the park.  A very encouraging sign for the young left handed slugger considering Santana is the best pitcher in the game and is also left-handed.  Bruce also was hitting 5th after Brandon Phillips, a great spot, better than the 2 hole as it was initially thought to be his spot in the Reds lineup.

Fantasy Baseball Advice:  Love Bruce this year.  Hanging in and homering against Johan is great for the lefthanded hitter as well.  If you snagged Bruce in you draft, nice job, I’d just ride the wave, drafted as a number 3 OF that could produce number 1 OF numbers.

The Braves and fantasy baseball owners alike got a raw deal in the person of Jeff Francoeur last year.  This much hyped youngster came into last season tabbed the next young Brave to explode onto the scene.  He fizzled big time with a Jason Varitek-esque year.  He’s off to a nice start this year though, homering on opening day, driving in 2 more runs already in todays game.

Fantasy Baseball Advice:  Great post hype buy.  Still a very young player at just 25 years old, he could still fulfill some of the promise he showed 2 years ago.  If you grabbed him in the very late rounds of your draft, you may have steal on your hands, at the very least enjoy the nice first 3 games.

Kevin Millwood, you may remember him as a Brave the last time he had much relevance, but he put together a very nice 7 inning, 1 earned run, 5 hits against,  5 K performance for the Rangers on opening day.  He was a borderline ace in his Braves days, he hasn’t been much since signing with the Rangers.

Fantasy Baseball Advice:  If you are dealing with some injuries to your staff, he may be a guy to look at.  He is also useful in leagues with benches that you pick a starting lineup, could be useful to mix in when he has 2 starts.  I am in no way declaring Kevin Millwood is as good as he was back with the Braves, but he could be a useful pitcher with good win potential with that offense backing him up, and can still rack up K’s at times.  His peripherals, WHIP and ERA, will probably be high, but he can contribute to your team.

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Filed under Observations, Pickups

AL at a Glance

by mrCane

Mike Jacobs (KC 1B) hit his league leading 6th homerun of the spring.  In addition he is tied with Josh Hamilton for the league lead in RBI with 17 while batting a robust .327.  Fantasy Advice:  Draft Jacobs late in drafts for his 30hr power potential.

Wilson Betemit and Josh Fields (CHW 3B), this is a situation worth monitoring because the winner is likely the starter for the Chi Sox.  Both guys are having great springs batting .341 and .413 respectively.  Betemit is actually only a year older than Fields at 27 years of age and has 6 hr this spring, twice as many as Fields.  Fantasy Advice:  It does seem Fields has the job but warrants a roster spot more in AL only leagues at this point.  Monitor both individuals progress!

A couple young guys to keep an eye on are Billy Butler (.348 3hr), Adam Jones (.341 7sb) and Nelson Cruz (5hr .906SLG).  All three are big time prospects who’s time may have arrived.  I could see Butler pulling off a .300 85 20 90, Jones a .290 90 18 90 25 and Cruz .270 90 25 90 10 season this year.  Fantasy Advice:  Look for these guys late in drafts for cheap but productive alternatives to their older counterparts.  All of them should be taken in 12 team roto mixed leagues.

Coco Crisp (KC cf) and Alexi Casilla (MIN 2B) are a couple of guys flying under the radar.  Coco is having a great spring with 2hr 2sb .417 which are reminiscent of his Cleveland days (20/20 type player).  He is guaranteed a starting gig in KC.  Casilla offers decent SB potential toward the end of all drafts.  He is a good hitter, who will hit toward the top of the Minnesota lineup, score runs and swipe about 20.  Fantasy Advice:  Both have larger mixed league potential.

What do Francisco Liriano and Zach Grienke have in common?  They both have 19K through 21 IP this spring.  The difference is Liriano has an era about 6 runs lower than Grienke.  Grienke has been getting pounded, but don’t get scared away.  Fantasy Advice:  Take Liriano as 1 or 1A type guy and Grienke as a solid number 3 who has the potential to pitch like a #2.

A couple young guys to keep an eye on, none who have starting jobs as of right now are Clay Buchholz (BOS sp), Trevor Cahill (OAK sp) and Brett Anderson (OAK sp).  They have era’s of 0.46, 3.94 and 2.25 respectively.  Buchholz is the better strike out guy with 15 in 19IP but all could be very useful by years end.  Fantasy Advice:  Get these guys in keeper leagues and monitor their progress for this year, they could all make an impact.

John Lackey (ANA sp) has some discomfort in his elbow recently.  This is a wait and see because Lackey insists he is ok, nothing like the injury last year.  Fantasy Advice:  If guys like Shields, Beckett, King Felix, Liriano or Chad Billingsley are on the board I would take them before Lackey.  Let someone else deal with the injury, you can have a perfectly healthy pitcher with the same numbers.

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Evaluating Trades

mrCane

Probably one of the gray areas in fantasy baseball even amongst friends is whether or not trades are fair.  Now lets be honest, the idea is to give up as little as you can and get the most in return.  If I can trade a hot John Danks for a cold Dan Haren, I’m going to do it.  As long as no managers involved are undermining the league, or as we in fantasy say “in cahoot’s”, then managers should be allowed to trade who they wish.  When you have more seasoned owners, trades like this don’t take place.  So to acquire good players you need to trade something in return.  You need to identify your teams needs and match them as best you can with other teams to find a good fit.  The most successful owners can think more than one step ahead and use one trade to spring another.  Here a couple trades I saw recently that were worth examining.  At face value they don’t look fair.  But many times in fantasy we can’t look at these things in a vacuum.

Ryan Howard straight up for Edison Volquez. 

I’ll start by saying I’m not a fan of Volquez this year, especially not for Ryan Howard.  But, it is important to understand what kind of league we are looking at.  In a mixed 5×5 Howard is a monster and Volquez, though very good is not a top 20 pitcher.  So what are some of the reasons an owner would make a trade like this.   They might be in a league where pitching is heavily favored.   Most leagues you find will wait on pitching in drafts, this league could be different.  In shallow leagues, say an 8 team you can find a very good 1B at eighth on the depth chart (Justin Morneau, Adrian Gonzales or Kevin Youkilis) so that could be a factor.  There is a chance that the league is required to pitch a high number of innings, that requires more starters, therefore SP hold more value.   We can’t always look at everything in a vacuum remember.

Fantasy Advice:  I wouldn’t have made the trade but then again I’m not a big Volquez fan.  If I’m trading a top 20 player I’m getting a top 10 pitcher in return.  Most important, know your league and the owners in it!

David Wright and Randy Winn  for Adrian Gonzales, Alexi Ramirez and Magglio Ordonez. 

This looks to me like highway robbery.  We are getting 3 top 50 players for the price of a top 5 player.  We need to understand both teams rosters, league rules and scoring to get a full grasp of how this can benefit both teams.  If the team acquiring Wright has great depth but lacks that superstar, trading surplus to address a need a third makes sense.  I think getting a player other than Randy Winn should have been attempted, maybe it was. 

Fantasy Advice:  If I’m trading David Wright for those guys I’m excited.  Alexi Ramirez could be a top producer behind the big 3 at short and he still qualifies in most leagues at 2B.  Again, if I’m the team acquiring David Wright I want someone with more upside than Randy Winn….Justin Upton, Adam Jones come to mind.

Last year Ryan Braun, Ryan Howard, Carlos Beltran, Brad Hawpe, CC Sabathia and Roy Oswalt all got off to bad starts.  Making trades to acquire these guys while their stock was low could have been a huge payoff.  This year, look for those slow starters with good track records.  Chances are if you like them now one bad month shouldn’t change your mind about them.  Just know good owners won’t trade them for .50 cents on the dollar, but .85 cents on the dollar is a nice return.

As the season moves along we at Fantasy Baseball Advisors would like to offer our fantasy trade advice just email us at fantasyadvisors@gmail.com with all trading needs.

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Spend Your Money Wisely

by mrCane

The idea of every draft is to get players at optimum value.  You don’t want to draft a player too soon.  You don’t want to waste a 2nd round pick on a guy you can grab in the 4th round.  Many times while drafting you begin to notice that the position is becoming vacant.  The top guys are going off the board, your pick is coming up and because all the magazines have Mr.X rated high you reach and take him while gritting your teeth.  In this list I’ve included there are guys with some counterparts at their positions and the recent ADP(Average Draft Position).  You can be the judge of who you want and what your willing to pay for the player.

C  Ramon Hernandez, ADP 277 vs Ryan Doumitt ADP 140     What this says is if you wait over 100 spots you could have the exact same stats for much cheaper.  Doumitt had some great hot streaks last year and has climbed the rankings because of the success.  But, Hernandez should match him in every offensive category so why pay extra?

1B  Billy Butler, ADP 246  vs  James Loney,  ADP  125     Loney has proved himself a little more but tops out at about 20hr.  Both guys will hit for the same average but Butler has the ability to hit for more power, as he did in the minors.  Butler has great plate discipline and its only a matter of time.  After the big dogs are gone at first take a careful look at what Loney can give you and ask yourself if its worth it?

2B  Aaron Hill, ADP 301  vs  Robinson Cano, ADP 97     Even after a huge bust of a season last year Cano is still top 100?  He doesn’t hit for power, doesn’t steal bases and proved he is capable of batting under .300.  He has always struck out a lot and continues to be drafted high.  Hill, if recovered from post concussion syndrome, is capable of a 20 hr season; 200 picks later!  Just monitor his health.

3B  Brandon Wood, ADP 332  vs Edwin Encarnacion, ADP 163     Ok, so Wood hasn’t panned out yet, well that is going to change.  If he bats .250 with 25hr isn’t that the same as Edwin?  For half the price? 

ss  Michael Young, ADP 98 vs  Derek Jeter, ADP 71   This isn’t a huge gap but because it is so early in the draft it is imperative to get these picks right.  These guys have the exact same numbers!  But Jeter is about two rounds earlier?  Jeter is a big household name, but average in the world of fantasy.

OF  Chase Headley, ADP 331 vs  Justin Upton, ADP 181    Another case of a big time name getting in the way of what actually happens on the field.  What is going to happen, their numbers will be the same.  Headley was a monster prospect that everyone has somehow forgot about this year.

OF  Adam Jones, ADP 266  vs  Andre Ethier, ADP 133     I’ll put it in very simple terms, Jones is better.  There, I said it.  He will have just as many homers, about 25 more SB and the other numbers should be about the same.  Why double the price?

OF  Fred Lewis, ADP 310  vs  David DeJesus, ADP 180  Here is another head scratcher, Lewis has better numbers.  The only difference between these two guys is Lewis will steal more bases.

SP  Chris Volstad, ADP 260  vs  Fausto Carmona, ADP 164     Fausto had a big year a two years ago.  Last year he was injured so he gets a pass.  But, regardless of the injury these guys are clones.  Non-strike out pitchers who will have good ERA’s.  One you pay for some name recognition, the other you don’t.

RP  Joel Hanranhan, ADP 282  vs  Brian Wilson, ADP 140      Why anyone would draft a closer with a near 5 ERA that high is beyond my thinking.  Joel is going to have a better ERA and more K’s than Wilson.  I know in a 5×5 those innings aren’t so great where the ERA hurts you, but whats better, a 4.00 or a 5.00?

How are you going to spend your money when it’s crunch time?

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