Tag Archives: Carlos Beltran

Observations (4/13)

By nichols33

Citi Field, the new home of the New York Mets, plays big…..real big. Both David Wright and Carlos Beltran smoked balls to dead center but they were just a can of corn for center fielder Jody Gerut. Down the lines are short but power alley to power alley, that place is big. Comparable to Petco park in San Diego.

Josh Johnson and Johan Santana had a good ole fashion duel in Miami on Sunday. One of the best games I’ve had a pleasure to watch recently. Johan struck out 13 Marlins and was only done in by a Daniel Murphy horrendous error. Johnson matched him frame for frame going the distance and nearly pitching a shutout. Peter Gammons predicted Johnson to win the NL Cy Young award this year. Some of Gammons’ recent predictions have been WAY off, but this one may come to fruition.

The Padres pitching staff after Jake Peavy and Chris Young might as well be a page ripped out of the yellow pages. Who are these guys? Frankie De La Cruz, Jae-Kuk Ryu, Kevin Correia, Luke Gregerson, Justin Hampson, Cla Meredith, Edwin Moreno, Edward Mujica, Luis Perdomo, Walter Silva!!??!?!? Bueller? Anyone?

Kevin Gregg will not be the closer for the Cubs on May 1st. It was ridiculous that he even won the job in the first place but you can see the frustration in Lou Pinella’s face as he watching Gregg pitch. Gregg had a 4 run lead last night versus the Brewers and had to strike out Prince Fielder who was the tying run to end the game. Carlos Marmol looked unhittable in the 8th.

Aaron Harang is an ace again. He threw a complete game shutout yesterday versus the Pirates after a very nice start against the Mets on opening day. He looked very good against the Mets in bad weather and followed that up with the gem yesterday. Harang will get a number of starts against poor teams like the Pirates, the Astros and the Brewers and is a low end #1 fantasy pitcher.

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Votto, Delgado, Beltran, Webb – Observations (4/8)

By nichols33

Brandon Webb is going to miss his next start this weekend versus the Dodgers. Big red flag for all Webb owners. No medical tests are scheduled at the moment and the Diamondbacks are playing it day-to-day. Fantasy Baseball Advice: Bench Webb in all leagues until he throws in a game and throws effectively. This is not good news. Hope for the best.

Joey Votto is good. He is real good. The 24 year old led all rookies in homers last season and he got his season going tonight. After a tough opening day versus Johan Santana, Votto had 3 hits tonight including an opposite field bomb off of Mike Pelfrey. Fantasy Baseball Advice: If you have this guy, sit back and enjoy. If you don’t have this guy….get him while the price is still relatively low.

Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado both had very good springs for both the Mets in Port St. Lucie as well as Team Puerto Rico in the WBC. Normally I don’t pay too much attention to spring stats for established veterans especially stars like Delgado and Beltran. But both of these guys are locked in and putting very good swings on the ball pretty much every at bat. Fantasy BaseballAdvice: I really like both of these guys this year. Delgado will be somewhere between his 1st half and 2nd half last year while I think Beltran will be slightly better than what he was last year which was the 2ndor 3rd best all around outfielder in the game.

David Wright looks lost at the plate. He is flailing at outside fastballs late in the count and swinging at off speed stuff int he dirt early in the count. To be fair, this is a very small sample and it was against a very sharp Aaron Harang and Edison Volquez. Wright did rip a double down the third base line and give a ball a good ride to the wall in right off the Reds bullpen tonight but an observation from a Mets fan who watches Wright daily….he looks lost at the plate. Fantasy Baseball Advice: Don’t worry, Wright will hit and he’ll hit soon. He is susceptible to long slumps where he looks lost for 10 or so games, but he always comes out of those slumps with a bang.

The Mets bullpen is sick. This is great news for all owners of Mets starters especially Johan Santana who had his bullpen blow 7 games last year in which he left the game with the lead. If Santana won 5 of those 7 games last year, Tim Lincecum might still be searching for his first Cy Young award.

The Braves bullpen is, well  not so good. They gave up 9 runs in the 7th inning today blowing a big lead over the Phillies including 4 bases loaded walks!?! Mike Gonzalez did not look so hot on opening night after Derek Lowe shut down the Phils for 8 innings. The Braves bullpen could cause a lot of hair lose for owners of Braves starting pitchers.

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How will Citi Field impact Fantasy Baseball?

By nichols33

The Mets are opening up a new ball park this year, Citi Field. Leaving behind Shea Stadium should be sad news to no one other than Chipper Jones. But before hitters start getting all excited, they should get a look at the new Mets ballpark……it may be an even better pitchers park than Shea.

The New York Times has an awesome interactive look at the new stadium you can check out here. The most telling aspect in that entire interactive piece is the graphic displayed here.

 

citifield4

The old Shea Stadium fence is the red line on the image and the wall was 8 feet high all around. Not only is the new park deeper almost all the way around, but the walls are nearly double in height in the power alleys.

Jerry Manual, the Mets manager, has already been quoted as saying that the new field is going to play “huge” which has to have the likes of Johan Santana and Mike Pelfrey excited.

What does this all mean for fantasy purposes? Well, I think we are going to have to wait and see how the field plays throughout the entire year. The weather could play a huge factor as well as any wind tunnels that may exist with the new open structure. But this could spell very good news for Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez, John Maine and Livan Hernandez.

As for the hitters, I don’t think the new dimensions are going to effect Jose Reyes at all. Perhaps with the wierd walls in right center will provide some wierd bounces changing a triple or two into an inside-the-park homerun, but if that’s the case it’s probably at the expense of an over the wall dinger or two.

Carlos Delgado’s homers are normally not wall brushers so I don’t see the park taking away too many homeruns from him. I do think the park will steal 3 or 4 dingers from David Wright especially his opposite field dingers. Guys like Ryan Church, Daniel Murphy and Brian Schneider may be impacted because they don’t hit tape measuere shots by any means.

For the most part though, expect the Mets pitchers to benefit by the new dimensions and expect some of the less powerful Mets hitters to lose a dinger or two but the Mets stars (Beltran, Wright, Reyes & Delgado) will be good hitters regardless of the park.

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5×5 Draft Recap – Part 4

By notebookguy

If you have read the “About Us” page on this blog you know that we are 5 guys that have been doing fantasy baseball together for over 10 years and this weekend was a BIG weekend. Saturday was a 12 team H2H points league draft that all 5 of us participated in and Sunday was a 15 team 5×5 Rotisserie league that all 5 of us participated in.

Since the H2H points league is a keeper league that allows draft pick trading it would be tough to explain why we did things where since each team had vastly different situations on draft day. But….the 5×5 draft was a start from scratch 5×5 league with 20 rosters spots where everybody starts. Over the next few days each of us will give a recap of our draft and hopefully provide some insight on what we were thinking and how it all panned out.

Team: Named after Hamsterdam in “The Wire”

Draft Position (Typical Serpentine Draft): 15th

My strategy going into the draft was to load up on bats early, preferably 5 category bats, and wait to fill out my pitching staff until the later rounds. Having the last pick in the draft, having a double pick, meant I couldn’t really set my sites on a particular player not knowing who would fall to me. In my mock drafts I mostly drafted 2 of Soriano, Beltran, and Prince, so that was the group I was prepared to take from, two 5 cat guys, and a slugging 1B, all 3 of which I obviously liked a lot. Position was not a huge concern but I did want to grab a decent SS before they all fell off the board.

Well my first 2 picks I never expected to fall to me. At the 15th and 16th picks I drafted Ian Kinsler(ADP 9) and Lance Berkman(ADP 15), 2 guys that rarely fell to me in my mock drafts. In fact, I never saw Kinsler at 15 in my mocks, and Berkman occasionally got to 15 but not very often. I was ecstatic about these picks a 5 category 2B, the best 2B in fantasy baseball in my opinion, and a slugging 1B that is a rock for 30 HR’s and 100 RBI’s, not to mention contributing very well in the other 3 cats most of the time.

I continued to get 5 category producers in the 3rd and 4th rounds with Brandon Phillips and Alex Rios. Phillips(ADP 30) being around 15 picks after he’s usually picked was a nice surprise, although I already had a 2B, I had to scoop this underrated potential 30-30 man, because everyone starts in this league and the numbers were too good to ignore. Rios fell into my plan as well, a 5 cat OF with upside. Needless to say I loved my first 4 picks, all fell into what I was looking for and were good values at the places I got them.

For my pitching staff I grabbed an ace, John Lackey, in the 5th round, filled out my top 3 of my pitching staff with Matt Cain(9th rd.), and Derek Lowe(11thrd.). Not a dominant top 3 but a good top 3 with some upside in Cain. Grabbing BJ Ryan(10thrd.) and Heath Bell(13thrd.) was better closers than I expected, but it may have cost the back end of my rotation because I ended up with Manny Parra(15th rd.) and Wandy Rodriguez(17thrd.) both of which I would’ve liked as a 5th starter but needing one of them as my 4thstarter was not in the plan, a problem I will fix with a deal for a starting pitcher.

The offense rounded out nicely getting some thunder in the middle rounds, Carlos Pena(5th rd.) and Jermaine Dye(8th rd.), will be nice power compliments to my top 4 picks. I also picked up one of the SS’s I was eyeing, Rafael Furcal(7th rd.), which was key giving me more SB’s, just have to keep an eye on his health. Jason Werth was a steal in the 12th round, another 5 category player to add to the mix.

My late round bats were guys I snagged late in most of my mock drafts Edwin Encarnacion(14thrd.) a 20+ HR 3B with upside, Shin-Soo Choo(16th rd.) a big upside OF, and Mike Jacobs(18th rd.) couldn’t believe this 30 HR 1B was still sitting there in the 18th round.

I am very happy with how my draft went. I would’ve liked to have drafted a better 4th starter and 3B, but no draft is going to go perfectly. I feel I have good balance in power and speed, good closers, and a good top 3 to my rotation, and I think I’m right there with anyone from day 1.

Projected Finish*: 3 out of 15 (89 total points)

(R: 14, HR: 12, RBI: 12, SB: 6, BA: 8, W: 2, Sv: 6, K: 6, ERA: 14, WHIP: 9)

* Based on Sportsline.com projections

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5×5 Draft Recap – Part 2

By tallkid1

If you have read the “About Us” page on this blog you know that we are 5 guys that have been doing fantasy baseball together for over 10 years and this weekend was a BIG weekend. Saturday was a 12 team H2H points league draft that all 5 of us participated in and Sunday was a 15 team 5×5 Rotisserie league that all 5 of us participated in.

Since the H2H points league is a keeper league that allows draft pick trading it would be tough to explain why we did things where since each team had vastly different situations on draft day. But….the 5×5 draft was a start from scratch 5×5 league with 20 rosters spots where everybody starts. Over the next few days each of us will give a recap of our draft and hopefully provide some insight on what we were thinking and how it all panned out.

Team: Side Burns

Draft Position (Typical Serpentine Draft): 14th

I had the 14th pick in a 15 team league in a snake draft. Not the ideal spot since I miss out on the all of the elite players like Hanley, Pujols and Wright but but ok because I get two of the top 17 picks. I ended up getting Carlos Beltran at pick 14 which I was happy about because of his five category abilities and consistency over the past few years. Then at pick 17 I passed on Matt Holliday and Evan Longoria and grabbed Justin Morneau as I felt he was the safer pick.

I wanted a top 10 pitcher so I grabbed Roy Oswalt (ranked exactly 10th on my list) at the end of the third round and then I took Carl Crawford at the top of the fourth round because I felt he was the best player available (I had been hoping for Brian Roberts but he went a few picks earlier).

At this point I had two outfielders, a first basemen and a starting pitcher so I felt the need to start filling in the infield with solid players (especially since it’s a 15 team league). I took VMart in the 5th, Cano in the 6th and Peralta in the 7th.

In the 8th I grabbed Dice-K but I somewhat regret that pick as Adrian Beltre was still on the board and there were other pitchers like Matt Cain, Jared Weaver, Javier Vazquez and Ted Lilly that I could have drafted in the 9th or 10th round. In fact, I did pick Vazquez in the 9th to round out my third starter behind Oswalt and Dice-k. I then made another pick I wasn’t too happy with taking Brian Fuentes in the 11th. I typically follow the theory that you should punt closers because they tend to be very unstable outside of the top five or so but I panicked and drafted one because there had been a run.

Looking at my team at this point I felt good about pitching but I felt my offense, while mostly balanced, was short on power. So I took Rick Ankiel in the 12th thinking he can add 25+ HR as my 3rd OF. Then I went for the remaining 3B in Alex Gordon and Mike Lowell to fill that position, an obvious weak spot on my team unless Gordon really breaks out or Lowell somehow returns to 2007 form – with either scenario unlikely.

From here on out I wanted to add depth with balanced players that wouldn’t hurt me in any major category so I drafted Casey Kotchman, Scott Baker, Kyle Lohse and Jeff Francouer. Then I rounded out the draft with a few gambles on young players – Brandon Wood, Chris Perez and Matt LaPorta hoping either would break camp with starting spots, if not it’s waiver wire time.

Overall I have a pretty balanced team with Beltran, Crawford, Morneau and Oswalt leading the pack as players who can help in several categories. However I jumped the gun and left myself hanging at 3B (a shallow position I blogged about!). The bottom line is that you can build a solid team even with such a late pick in a 15 team league.

Projected Finish*: 14th out of 15 (68 total points)

(R: 10, HR: 10, RBI: 15, SB: 3, BA: 9, W: 4, Sv: 5, K: 2, ERA: 3, WHIP: 7)

* Based on Sportsline.com projections

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Evaluating Trades

mrCane

Probably one of the gray areas in fantasy baseball even amongst friends is whether or not trades are fair.  Now lets be honest, the idea is to give up as little as you can and get the most in return.  If I can trade a hot John Danks for a cold Dan Haren, I’m going to do it.  As long as no managers involved are undermining the league, or as we in fantasy say “in cahoot’s”, then managers should be allowed to trade who they wish.  When you have more seasoned owners, trades like this don’t take place.  So to acquire good players you need to trade something in return.  You need to identify your teams needs and match them as best you can with other teams to find a good fit.  The most successful owners can think more than one step ahead and use one trade to spring another.  Here a couple trades I saw recently that were worth examining.  At face value they don’t look fair.  But many times in fantasy we can’t look at these things in a vacuum.

Ryan Howard straight up for Edison Volquez. 

I’ll start by saying I’m not a fan of Volquez this year, especially not for Ryan Howard.  But, it is important to understand what kind of league we are looking at.  In a mixed 5×5 Howard is a monster and Volquez, though very good is not a top 20 pitcher.  So what are some of the reasons an owner would make a trade like this.   They might be in a league where pitching is heavily favored.   Most leagues you find will wait on pitching in drafts, this league could be different.  In shallow leagues, say an 8 team you can find a very good 1B at eighth on the depth chart (Justin Morneau, Adrian Gonzales or Kevin Youkilis) so that could be a factor.  There is a chance that the league is required to pitch a high number of innings, that requires more starters, therefore SP hold more value.   We can’t always look at everything in a vacuum remember.

Fantasy Advice:  I wouldn’t have made the trade but then again I’m not a big Volquez fan.  If I’m trading a top 20 player I’m getting a top 10 pitcher in return.  Most important, know your league and the owners in it!

David Wright and Randy Winn  for Adrian Gonzales, Alexi Ramirez and Magglio Ordonez. 

This looks to me like highway robbery.  We are getting 3 top 50 players for the price of a top 5 player.  We need to understand both teams rosters, league rules and scoring to get a full grasp of how this can benefit both teams.  If the team acquiring Wright has great depth but lacks that superstar, trading surplus to address a need a third makes sense.  I think getting a player other than Randy Winn should have been attempted, maybe it was. 

Fantasy Advice:  If I’m trading David Wright for those guys I’m excited.  Alexi Ramirez could be a top producer behind the big 3 at short and he still qualifies in most leagues at 2B.  Again, if I’m the team acquiring David Wright I want someone with more upside than Randy Winn….Justin Upton, Adam Jones come to mind.

Last year Ryan Braun, Ryan Howard, Carlos Beltran, Brad Hawpe, CC Sabathia and Roy Oswalt all got off to bad starts.  Making trades to acquire these guys while their stock was low could have been a huge payoff.  This year, look for those slow starters with good track records.  Chances are if you like them now one bad month shouldn’t change your mind about them.  Just know good owners won’t trade them for .50 cents on the dollar, but .85 cents on the dollar is a nice return.

As the season moves along we at Fantasy Baseball Advisors would like to offer our fantasy trade advice just email us at fantasyadvisors@gmail.com with all trading needs.

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Fantasy Baseball 5 Category Players

ARod loves 5 Category Players

ARod loves 5 Category Players

By nichols33

Any seasoned fantasy baseball owner will tell you to target 5 category players early in the draft in 5×5 leagues. There are some strategies where you pick pitching early and others where you don’t pick pitchers until the 6th round at the earliest. Some try to get power early and pick up steals late. Regardless of which strategy you choose, in a 5×5 league guys who can drive in runs, hit for average, hit the long ball, score runs and steal some bags are gold. Here are some buckets based on last year’s stats:

Players who hit over .280, 75 R, 20 HR, 75 RBI, 10 SB

Player BA R HR RBI SB
Carlos Beltran (OF, NYM) .284 116 27 112 25
David Wright (3B, NYM) .302 115 33 124 15
Lance Berkman (1B, HOU) .312 114 29 106 18
Chase Utley (2B, PHI)  .292 113 33 104 14
Matt Holliday (OF, OAK) .321 107 25 88 28
Alex Rodriguez (3B, NYY) .302 104 35 103 18
Nick Markakis (OF, BAL) .306 106 20 87 10
Jason Bay (OF, BOS) .286 111 31 101 10
Bobby Abreu (OF, ANA) .296 100 20 100 22
Ryan Braun (OF, MIL)  .285 92 37 106 14
Alfonso Soriano (OF, CHC) .280 76 29 75 19

These guys just missed that list last year:

Player BA R HR RBI SB
Hanley Ramirez (SS, FLA) .301 125 33 67 35
Curtis Granderson (OF, DET) .280 112 22 66 12
Alexei Ramirez (2B, CHW) .290 65 21 77 13

You can bet Hanley will be make the list this year, especially if he moves to the 3 hole in the Marlins line-up.

 

20 / 20 Players (20 HRs & 20 SBs)

Player BA R HR RBI SB
Bobby Abreu (OF, ANA) .296 100 20 100 22
Carlos Beltran (OF, NYM) .284 116 27 112 25
Corey Hart (OF, MIL) .268 76 20 91 23
Matt Holliday (OF, OAK) .321 107 25 88 28
Nate McLouth (OF, PIT) .276 113 26 94 23
Brandon Phillips (2B, CIN) .261 80 21 78 23
Hanley Ramirez (SS, FLA) .301 125 33 67 35
Grady Sizemore (OF, CLE) .268 101 33 90 38
Jayson Werth (OF, PHI) .273 73 24 67 20

 

If you are willing to pick up steals later in the draft or plan on picking up the hottest young speedster during the year here are 4 Category guys (R, HR, SB, RBI):

Players who hit over .300, 75 R, 20 HR, 75 RBI

Player BA R HR RBI SB
Albert Pujols (1B, STL) .357 100 37 116 7
Manny Ramirez  (OF, LAD)  .332 102 37 121 3
Milton Bradley (OF, CHC) .321 78 22 77 5
Matt Holliday (OF, OAK) .321 107 25 88 28
Kevin Youkilis (1B, BOS) .312 91 29 115 3
Lance Berkman (1B, HOU) .312 114 29 106 18
Mark Teixeira  (1B, NYY) .308 102 33 121 2
Josh Hamilton (OF, TEX) .305 98 32 130 9
Xavier Nady (OF, NYY) .305 76 25 97 2
Aubrey Huff (1B, BAL)  .304 96 32 108 4
Vladimir Guerrero (OF, ANA) .303 85 27 91 5
Alex Rodriguez (3B, NYY) .302 104 35 103 18
David Wright (3B, NYM) .302 115 33 124 15
Justin Morneau (1B, MIN) .300 97 23 129 0

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