Spend Your Money Wisely

by mrCane

The idea of every draft is to get players at optimum value.  You don’t want to draft a player too soon.  You don’t want to waste a 2nd round pick on a guy you can grab in the 4th round.  Many times while drafting you begin to notice that the position is becoming vacant.  The top guys are going off the board, your pick is coming up and because all the magazines have Mr.X rated high you reach and take him while gritting your teeth.  In this list I’ve included there are guys with some counterparts at their positions and the recent ADP(Average Draft Position).  You can be the judge of who you want and what your willing to pay for the player.

C  Ramon Hernandez, ADP 277 vs Ryan Doumitt ADP 140     What this says is if you wait over 100 spots you could have the exact same stats for much cheaper.  Doumitt had some great hot streaks last year and has climbed the rankings because of the success.  But, Hernandez should match him in every offensive category so why pay extra?

1B  Billy Butler, ADP 246  vs  James Loney,  ADP  125     Loney has proved himself a little more but tops out at about 20hr.  Both guys will hit for the same average but Butler has the ability to hit for more power, as he did in the minors.  Butler has great plate discipline and its only a matter of time.  After the big dogs are gone at first take a careful look at what Loney can give you and ask yourself if its worth it?

2B  Aaron Hill, ADP 301  vs  Robinson Cano, ADP 97     Even after a huge bust of a season last year Cano is still top 100?  He doesn’t hit for power, doesn’t steal bases and proved he is capable of batting under .300.  He has always struck out a lot and continues to be drafted high.  Hill, if recovered from post concussion syndrome, is capable of a 20 hr season; 200 picks later!  Just monitor his health.

3B  Brandon Wood, ADP 332  vs Edwin Encarnacion, ADP 163     Ok, so Wood hasn’t panned out yet, well that is going to change.  If he bats .250 with 25hr isn’t that the same as Edwin?  For half the price? 

ss  Michael Young, ADP 98 vs  Derek Jeter, ADP 71   This isn’t a huge gap but because it is so early in the draft it is imperative to get these picks right.  These guys have the exact same numbers!  But Jeter is about two rounds earlier?  Jeter is a big household name, but average in the world of fantasy.

OF  Chase Headley, ADP 331 vs  Justin Upton, ADP 181    Another case of a big time name getting in the way of what actually happens on the field.  What is going to happen, their numbers will be the same.  Headley was a monster prospect that everyone has somehow forgot about this year.

OF  Adam Jones, ADP 266  vs  Andre Ethier, ADP 133     I’ll put it in very simple terms, Jones is better.  There, I said it.  He will have just as many homers, about 25 more SB and the other numbers should be about the same.  Why double the price?

OF  Fred Lewis, ADP 310  vs  David DeJesus, ADP 180  Here is another head scratcher, Lewis has better numbers.  The only difference between these two guys is Lewis will steal more bases.

SP  Chris Volstad, ADP 260  vs  Fausto Carmona, ADP 164     Fausto had a big year a two years ago.  Last year he was injured so he gets a pass.  But, regardless of the injury these guys are clones.  Non-strike out pitchers who will have good ERA’s.  One you pay for some name recognition, the other you don’t.

RP  Joel Hanranhan, ADP 282  vs  Brian Wilson, ADP 140      Why anyone would draft a closer with a near 5 ERA that high is beyond my thinking.  Joel is going to have a better ERA and more K’s than Wilson.  I know in a 5×5 those innings aren’t so great where the ERA hurts you, but whats better, a 4.00 or a 5.00?

How are you going to spend your money when it’s crunch time?

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8 Comments

Filed under Draft Position, Position Analysis

8 responses to “Spend Your Money Wisely

  1. nichols33

    Wow…..settle down big fella. I like the premise and agree with a number of these suggestions but I think you are taking huge leaps of judgement on Adam Jones vs Andre Ethier.
    Ethier played 9 more games than Jones last year but he hit 25 points higher, had 29 more runs, hit 11 more HRs, 20 more RBIs yet all of the sudden this year they are going to be the same!?!!
    And the stolen base claim?!?!?! WOW, Jones had 4 more stolen bases than Ethier last year and this year that is going to jump up to 25 SBs more? Did you personally inject Mr. Jones with a Speedy Gonzalez gene?
    Both players were playing in their first season as a full-time starter in the bigs so they both have very similar major league experience even though Ethier is 4 years older. BUT, Jones strikes out 4.69 times for every walk. Ethier just 1.49 Ks per walk. His approach at the plate is light years ahead of where Jones is.
    Factor in that Torre is talking of hitting Ethier 3rd in a very good Dodger line-up ahead of Manny Ramirez and I’m cleary in the Ethier camp on this one.
    I’ll kindly agree to disagree on Hill vs Cano & Headley vs Upton. Others are very good.

  2. mrcane

    At the end of the year you’ll Jones with better numbers than Either. He is faster with the same HR capabilities.

    Hill I’m not saying to wait on instead of Cano. I would rather have Cano. But I don’t want Cano if its going to cost my a 6th round pick. In fact I would rather take Jose Lopez much later, Lopez had better numbers last year, is still young and has power. The point was a guy like Hill who can offer good numbers at the 2B position will be available late. (Cano will bust again)

    Headley and Upton are hard to argue because we haven’t seen much of either. Both have power, Headley has a better batting eye, Upton is the athlete who can run….who is better? In a keeper league give me Upton all the way. For this year, for value at certain points in a draft you could say Headley, unless of course you think Upton evolves this year, I don’t think he will.

  3. When I saw the title, I thought it was going to be an essay on deciding whether to partner-up with Bonner. 🙂

  4. tallkid1

    I’m going to have to agree with Nichols on this one. I like the analysis but there is really no rationale for comparing Ethier and Jones or leaping to the conclusion that you will get the same value out of them. The other question I’d rais is if I’m waiting to draft these other guys later, who should I spend my picks and money on?

  5. mrcane

    Guys in that area include Hunter Pence (steals bases), Jermaine Dye (more power), but Ethier is going as high as 86. Some guys in that range include Votto, Kemp, Hart and Ellsbury. Ethier is somewhat average to me, 20hr .280avg 80rs 80rbi guy. Jones has the same numbers except he steals bases, 10 last year with 7 this spring, he will swipe at least 20 – 25bags. That is more value.

    • nichols33

      I’m not taking Ethier before Kemp, Votto, Hart or Ellsbury, so we are in agreement there. But I just think you are ignoring last year’s acutal numbers and taking a GIANT leap of faith that Adam Jones is nearly going to triple his SB production from last year as well as improve significantly in Avg., HRs and RBIs. You say Ethier is a 20hr .280avg 80rs 80rbi guy when last year (his 1st full season as a starter) he hit .305 with 20hr, 90rs, 77 RBIs. So you are saying a guy who is 27 years old, in his prime and coming into his 2nd full season in the majors as a starter is going to digress even though he now has Manny Ramirez hitting behind him for a full season???
      That may not be so bad and it may in fact happen, I just don’t see how you can look at Ethier’s stats from last year and predict a digression with his experience and age and then look at Jones’ stats from last year and expect him to all of the sudden stop swing at everything and become a legit major league hitter.
      Ethier may be going a bit early in drafts, but he is a bonafide 2nd OF in all leagues. Jones is nothing more than a late round 5th OF that you pray his talent bust onto the scene and he finally becomes a fantasy factor. Ethier already is a fantasy factor.

      • mrcane

        Well Ethier hit .243 against lefties so all his production came against right handers. Do I think he’ll hit .335 against righties again, nope. I think RBI stay about the same, no regression there. I think homers stay about the same, no regression there. If he can’t sustain the AVG then his runs scored will go down because he just won’t be on base as much. With Ethier he is a guy with little upside at this point, he is a nice player.

  6. mrcane

    See with Jones vs Ethier, for me I’m not taking the Dodger so I would wait on a guy like Jones. For the Cano vs Hill, I’m not passing on Cano and waiting for Hill, I’m just not going to get caught up in making sure I grab Robinson too soon because I know later in the draft I can still get comparable value with Jose Lopez or Hill.

    Another thing is even with their numbers being close this year (as I’m calling it) Jones has bigger upside to boot. As nichols33 said, he is 4 years younger.

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