The idea of every draft is to get players at optimum value. You don’t want to draft a player too soon. You don’t want to waste a 2nd round pick on a guy you can grab in the 4th round. Many times while drafting you begin to notice that the position is becoming vacant. The top guys are going off the board, your pick is coming up and because all the magazines have Mr.X rated high you reach and take him while gritting your teeth. In this list I’ve included there are guys with some counterparts at their positions and the recent ADP(Average Draft Position). You can be the judge of who you want and what your willing to pay for the player.
C Ramon Hernandez, ADP 277 vs Ryan Doumitt ADP 140 What this says is if you wait over 100 spots you could have the exact same stats for much cheaper. Doumitt had some great hot streaks last year and has climbed the rankings because of the success. But, Hernandez should match him in every offensive category so why pay extra?
1B Billy Butler, ADP 246 vs James Loney, ADP 125 Loney has proved himself a little more but tops out at about 20hr. Both guys will hit for the same average but Butler has the ability to hit for more power, as he did in the minors. Butler has great plate discipline and its only a matter of time. After the big dogs are gone at first take a careful look at what Loney can give you and ask yourself if its worth it?
2B Aaron Hill, ADP 301 vs Robinson Cano, ADP 97 Even after a huge bust of a season last year Cano is still top 100? He doesn’t hit for power, doesn’t steal bases and proved he is capable of batting under .300. He has always struck out a lot and continues to be drafted high. Hill, if recovered from post concussion syndrome, is capable of a 20 hr season; 200 picks later! Just monitor his health.
3B Brandon Wood, ADP 332 vs Edwin Encarnacion, ADP 163 Ok, so Wood hasn’t panned out yet, well that is going to change. If he bats .250 with 25hr isn’t that the same as Edwin? For half the price?
ss Michael Young, ADP 98 vs Derek Jeter, ADP 71 This isn’t a huge gap but because it is so early in the draft it is imperative to get these picks right. These guys have the exact same numbers! But Jeter is about two rounds earlier? Jeter is a big household name, but average in the world of fantasy.
OF Chase Headley, ADP 331 vs Justin Upton, ADP 181 Another case of a big time name getting in the way of what actually happens on the field. What is going to happen, their numbers will be the same. Headley was a monster prospect that everyone has somehow forgot about this year.
OF Adam Jones, ADP 266 vs Andre Ethier, ADP 133 I’ll put it in very simple terms, Jones is better. There, I said it. He will have just as many homers, about 25 more SB and the other numbers should be about the same. Why double the price?
OF Fred Lewis, ADP 310 vs David DeJesus, ADP 180 Here is another head scratcher, Lewis has better numbers. The only difference between these two guys is Lewis will steal more bases.
SP Chris Volstad, ADP 260 vs Fausto Carmona, ADP 164 Fausto had a big year a two years ago. Last year he was injured so he gets a pass. But, regardless of the injury these guys are clones. Non-strike out pitchers who will have good ERA’s. One you pay for some name recognition, the other you don’t.
RP Joel Hanranhan, ADP 282 vs Brian Wilson, ADP 140 Why anyone would draft a closer with a near 5 ERA that high is beyond my thinking. Joel is going to have a better ERA and more K’s than Wilson. I know in a 5×5 those innings aren’t so great where the ERA hurts you, but whats better, a 4.00 or a 5.00?
How are you going to spend your money when it’s crunch time?