Funny thing happened to Adrian Beltre on the way to the draft…

by notebook guy

…  he went from underrated to overrated.  He went from an average draft position of 201, or the 14th round, to pick 115, in the 8th round.  This is what can happen in your draft when someone is dubbed a “sleeper”.  The sleeper becomes a hot commodity on draft day and his thought to be great value late evaporates because he is not taken late.  On draft day his ADP was cut in half, did he start a new roids cycle recently?  Is he in the “best shape of his life”?  The answers are I don’t know and I sincerely doubt it but somehow this thought to be bargain 3B jumped 100 spots in the draft, a remarkable turn around.  Just something to consider in your draft, if there is a buzz about a player being a sleeper before your draft, chances are he’ll no longer be sleeping till late on your draft day.

Advertisements

2 Comments

Filed under Draft Position

2 responses to “Funny thing happened to Adrian Beltre on the way to the draft…

  1. nichols33

    Love Beltre in the 14th…..not so much in the 8th.

    I just got Beltre tonight in a H2H points league in the 16th round and we had two keepers going in. 10 teams in the league. So after keepers etc, he was pick #177. Since I have David Wright as my 3B I have no use for him but the value was just too great to pass up.

  2. mrcane

    See I think Beltre is less valuable in a points league because of strikeouts. In a 5×5 he can contribute in all categories 90 25 90 10…thats good production from a 8th round pick. Also, ADP varies from site to site, for instance ESPN.com has Beltre at 101.8 ADP, ahead of Ryan Zimmerman who I find usually goes ahead of Beltre in many of my mock drafts.

    Here is an interesting fact, but it completely makes sense. One site has Beltre ranked 90th overall and as a result his ADP was 101. Another site had his ranking at 173 and as a result his ADP was 171. People follow the masses. Zimmerman was consistently around 95-120 in rankings and ADP.

    Beltre has hit 25hr each of the past 3 years, Zimmermans career high is 24. The will both drive in about 90 and score the same amount with a .270 avg. Beltre will steal bases and Zimmerman wont yet there is this idea that Ryan Z is the better option. I think we forget that Beltre has yet to turn 30 and has been a consistent source in fantasy for a while.

    Pick 115 is about where he should go, to get him in the 14th is a steal. Think about these raw numbers…44th hr, 76 rb, 98th RS, 100th SB, 88th Hits last year. He is a top 100 hitter easily. If 25 pitchers go in the top 100 that pushes him to top 125, its a no brainer.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s