Tag Archives: Ryan Ludwick

Now I’m a Believer…

by mrCane

Some players we draft in the first round and get 4th round production from them. Others we draft in the 10th round and get 5th round production from them. Below are a few players that have impressed me based on when they were drafted and the impressive production we have received.

I think number one on this list is Ryan Ludwick..Coming into the season I wasn’t a believer. My feeling was something around 25hr and 85rbi would be a good year. Right now Ludwick is 3rd in the majors in RBI with 5hr and an OPS north of 1.000, last year was obviously not a fluke. Fantasy Advice: Keep Ludwick and ride the wave. Chances are most people won’t give you fair market value. Another option is to go out and get him. If you can convince another owner he is only a 25hr guy, take him off that owners hand and watch the 35hr leave the yard this summer.

Kevin Youkilis, a member of my beloved Red Sox is making me realize that he might just be a guy who can top 30hr and 120rbi. I always felt he was more of a 20hr hitter, but it looks to me like he is upper echelon at this point. I think by years end he will out perform all first basemen not named Pujols or Cabrera. His 3rd or 4th round draft position will be a steal at this point. He has guys on base he will be driving in, and with Drew, Bay and Lowell hitting behind him he will score plenty of runs. Fantasy Advice: Look for a year of 110RS 120RBI 32HR and .308BA….he is elite.

Bobby Abreau is a stealing machine. I’ve seen reports of many who think he’ll wind up with 25 stolen bases, something I completely disagree with. Abreau plays for a team now (LAA) notorious for running. He is a efficient base stealer and this will be taken advantage of by the Angels. I’m looking more for 32 stolen bases this season. Fantasy Advice: Expect .300BA 100RS 100RBI 30SB and 15HR which will make Abreau a top outfielder.

Nyjer Morgan is another bonafide base stealer. He is very one dimensional which limits his value but hitting leadoff will provide ample opportunities to score runs. I project upwards of 40 stolen bases for the speedy outfielder making him useful in all roto leagues. Fantasy Advice: Most owners picked Morgan up off waivers. Check your ww to see if he is still available.

3 Comments

Filed under Uncategorized

Position Depth Scarcity

By nichols33

Any experienced fantasy baseball player will tell you that they take into account the depth at certain positions when drafting or placing an auction value on a player. Stephen Drew’s .291 avg. last season with 21 HRs was far more valuable than Derrek Lee’s .291 avg. with 20 HRs because Drew plays shortstop and Lee plays first base. Lee is an average 1B at best while Drew is arguably a Top 5 SS. How can that be you ask? It all comes down to the options available at each position and the difference between the top producers over the non producers who are forced to start due to lack of options.

My colleague tallkid1 wrote a great piece, Third Base, The New Second Base, where he asked the question which position has the least depth or most depth scarcity. This inspired me to try and put some analysis together and attempt to solve this question for the upcoming fantasy baseball season.

I based my analysis on a 12 team Head-to-Head Points league that starts 1 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, U/DH, 3 OF, 5 SP, 2 RP. I took the average points scored for the season for the top “starters” at each position. So I averaged the top 12 scoring catchers, the top 36 scoring OFs, top 60 scoring SPs, etc. The data rolled up like this:

Pos Avg Starters Pts
C 321.7
1B 488.4
2B 418.0
SS 417.4
3B 412.0
OF 439.4
SP 411.5
RP 236.3

This analysis obviously assumes that the top 12 scorers at 1B are all on different teams and also does not factor in the U/DH spot but directionally this data proves very helpful.

As you might expect the top 12 scoring catchers are greatly outscored by the top scorers at other positions. MLB teams place great emphasis on defensive minded players at the catcher position and even the best catchers sit roughly every 5th game. What is rather telling is tallkid1 was onto something. 3B was actually lower scoring than SS and 2B.

Surprising no one, 1B is the deepest position but by how far ahead it was over OF was quite shocking to me. OF felt a little weaker than normal going into last season but some breakout seasons (Kemp, Quentin, Hamilton, Victorino, Ethier, McLouth, Ludwick) really added to the depth of that position.

When drafting or placing auction value on a player you must keep in mind the position depth scarcity. You can be sitting pretty after 5 rounds with Mark Teixeira, Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, Adam Dunn and Vladimir Guerrero but after round 15 you’ll feel nauseous looking at Bengie Molina, Alexi Casilla, Miguel Tejeda and Melvin Mora in your starting lineup.

2 Comments

Filed under Position Analysis