Tag Archives: Erik Bedard

Injury Update

By mrcane and nichols33redcross

Do you have a draft this weekend? Don’t be the one to call out a guy that is out for the year or waste an early round pick on a pitcher that won’t pitch until June. Here is a rundown of the major injuries to impact fantasy baseball players heading into the 2009 season:

Catchers:

Joe Mauer – Kidney – Status: Late March

mrcane: Kidney, back, not really sure but the situation should be monitored closely.

nichols33: Watch this situation closely. The way the Twins are handling this makes me think that this is more serious they we may all know. I’ve already moved Mauer to 4th on my list behind McCann, Martin and Soto.

Jesus Flores – Elbow – Status: Mid March

mrcane: Should be ok to go.  Flores is an option for larger mixed leagues.

2nd Basemen:

Chase Utley – Hip – Status: Day to day

mrcane: Has been playing, a top 10 pick in my book.

nichols33: Hope that he slides in your draft due to injury concerns, he is money.

Dustin Pedroia – Oblique – Status: Late March

mrcane: Closely monitor the MVP’s progress, this can be a lingering issue.

nichols33: I already expected a bit of a letdown season for Pedroia and this just could be the start. Still a top 4 second baseman.

Shortstops:

Hanley Ramirez – Shoulder – Status: Day to day

mrcane: No worries, the number one pick in fantasy.

nichols33: #1 in my book

Julio Lugo – Knee – Status: Mid April

mrcane: Could permanently lose his job because of the surgery, waiver wire.

nichols33: shouldn’t be drafted unless it’s a Redsox only league

3rd Basemen:

Alex Rodriguez – Hip – Status: Early May at best

nichols33: ARod is already off his crutches and says he’s rehab is going great. If ARod is back sometime in early May, he is still a Top 4 3B. Only take Wright, Longoria and Ramirez over him.

Chipper Jones – Strained Oblique – Status: Day to day

mrcane: Same old story with Chipper, goes too early, draft at your own risk.

nichols33: Chipper will drive you nuts if you own him. He’ll miss games here and there. If you are in a daily line-up change league, you have to be on top of things everyday to ensure you play him when he plays and sit him when he sits. He is still probably the 5th best 3B.

Garret Atkins – Hip – Status: Day to day

mrcane: Atkins should be okay.

nichols33: Overrated clap clap clap clap clap. Overrated. Stewart has that job by the end of the year. Atkins is either at 1B or traded.

Troy Glaus – Shoulder – Status: Mid April

mrcane: Same old story with Glaus, constantly dinged up.  Nothing unusual.

nichols33: not a bad late flyer. Stash him on your bench until he’s back then enjoy the dingers.

Outfielders:

Ryan Braun – Ribcage – Status: Day to Day

nichols33: Braun is staying with team USA who are fighting to make the semis of the WBC. The fact that he is staying with the team rather than going back to Brewer camp leads me to believe this is not serious at all. Braun is a top 10 pick in all leagues.

Manny Ramirez – Hamstring – Status: Late March

mrcane: We know how Manny injuries can linger, should not effect his draft status.

nichols33: Is this just the start of Manny being Manny? Agree with mrcane, still draft him in the 2nd/3rd round.

BJ Upton – Shoulder – Status: Early April

mrcane: Should only miss the first week, no concerns here.

nichols33: Be prepared in the early season with a good replacement.

Vlad Guerrero – Knee – Status: Mid March

nichols33: Vlad is having a tough spring. He’s aged one complete year, he’s had to shut it down for injury and he is a soon-to-be free agent in a horrible market for players. Slide Vlad down a few spots on your list but don’t get too carried away. When he plays…he hits.

Vernon Wells – Hamstring – Status: Late March

mrcane: The often injured centerfielder should be monitored.

nichols33: when he played last season, he hit. Just needs to stay on the field.

Garret Anderson – Calf – Status: Late March

mrcane: Should be a very minor injury.

nichols33: Should not be drafted unless you are in the deepest of NL only leagues. Platoon player along with Matt Diaz.

Eric Byrnes – Hamstring – Status: Day to day

mrcane: If Byrnes doesn’t have his legs then he has nothing.  Monitor progress.

nichols33: 4th OF in Arizona. Only useful in NL only leagues as a stash away and hope for injury guy.

DHs:

Hank Blalock – Quad – Status: Day to day

mrcane: Blalock has been designated to AL only leagues.  He won’t play a full season.

nichols33: Is getting drafting in every draft I’ve seen. Not a bad late round flyer but certainly don’t count on anything. Played well when he came back from injury the last few weeks of the season.

Starting Pitchers:

Johan Santana – Elbow – Status: Day to day

nichols33: It appears as though Santana is set to pitch on opening day (April 6th). The nightmare appears over for Mets fans and Johan owners. Johan should be one of the top three pitchers off the board along with Lincecum & Sabathia.

Cole Hamels – Elbow – Status: Day to day

mrcane: Went back to Philly for testing. Proved to be inflammation in his left elbow. No structural damage.

nichols33: Warning, warning, warning!! Even though this checks out OK, Cole will most likely be on the DL at some point this year. His increase in innings over ’07 and the fact that he pitched deep into the fall are red flags. Still a top 10 pitcher, just don’t be shocked to see him go down.

Ervin Santana – Elbow – Status: Mid April

mrcane: Not a good sign, draft a healthy arm and let someone else worry about Santana.

Erik Bedard – Glute – Status: Day to day

mrcane: I’m sticking by Bedard as a steal, don’t overpay, word is he’ll be ok.

nichols33: Seems to going right where I’d expect him to go in most drafts. Not a bad risk/reward guy as your #3 or #4. I’d prefer he my #4.

Max Scherzer – Shoulder – Status: Mid April

mrcane: Very concerning, monitor closely, don’t waste a valuable pick.

Brandon Morrow – Forearm – Status: Late March

mrcane: Forearms never go away and many times lead to the elbow.  Be careful.

Randy Johnson – Bicep – Status: Day to Day

nichols33: Johnson’s Tuesday start is being skipped. Giants are saying this is just precautionary and no biggie. I like Johnson this year and if he can stay on the field he could be a very good 4. I appear to not be alone in that opinion as Johnson goes in most drafts earlier than expected.

Shawn Marcum – Elbow – Status: Out for Season

mrcane: No fantasy value

nichols33: I’ve seen this guy drafted twice now…….Don’t be that guy/girl

Jeff Francis – Shoulder – Status: Out for Season

mrcane: No fantasy value

Tim Hudson – Elbow – Status: Out until August

mrcane: No fantasy value

Ben Sheets – Elbow – Status: early June (free agent)

mrcane: Could be useful in larger AL only leagues.

Kelvin Escobar – Shoulder/calf – Status: Mid-May

mrcane: Monitor progress, useful in larger mixed leagues.

John Smoltz – Shoulder – Status: Mid May

mrcane: Mid may seems optimistic, AL only leagues.

Dustin McGowan – Shoulder – Status: Early May

mrcane: Shoulder injuries are difficult to come back from, don’t expect much from Dustin.

Justin Duchscherer – Elbow – Status: Mid April

mrcane: Stay clear of Duchscherer on draft day, the news keeps getting worse.

Jason Schmidt – Shoulder – Status: Start on 15 day DL

mrcane: No value in any format.

Tom Glavine – Elbow/Shoulder – Status: Mid April

mrcane: Has little value when healthy except for larger NL only leagues.

Rich Hill – Elbow – Status: Late March

mrcane: Avoid in all formats.

Jeremy Bonderman – Shoulder – Status: Late March

mrcane: Bonderman should only be drafted in large AL only leagues.

Brad Penny – Shoulder – Status: Late March

mrcane: After being injured all of most of last year, monitor his progress.

Relief Pitchers:

Mariano Rivera – Shoulder – Status: Day to day

mrcane: Word is that Rivera will just fine. I’m a fan.

Matt Lindstrom – strained rotator cuff – Status: Shut down for 7 – 10 days

nichols33: Bad news for a possible sleeper for saves. Lindstrom, if healthy, will be the Marlins closer, but rotator cuff soreness for a power pitcher is never a good sign. Leo Nunez will be the closer until Lindstrom gets back. Only take Lindstrom after the other 20 or so closers that are guaranteed to have the job are off the board.

Joey Devine – Elbow – Status: Late March

mrcane: Should be closer with injury history should be ok.

Billy Wagner – Elbow – Status: out for the season

mrcane: No fantasy value

Chad Cordero – Shoulder – Status: Mid April

mrcane: My vote as the closer by the end of April, check the waiver wire.

Joel Zumaya – Shoulder, neck – Status: Mid April

mrcane: Lyons has the job and Zumaya is never healthy, avoid Zumaya.

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The AL at a Glance

By mrcane

As we finish another week of preseason baseball and roll toward the starting point some players are performing above and beyond expectations and others are faltering.  Let’s get the most scrutinized player of the year out of the way…Alex Rodriguez will now miss 6 to 9 weeks as reported by most major sources.  From a fantasy perspective if your going to draft him then you better have a reasonable back up because Arod won’t be gracing your lineup until as late as May.  It is reasonable to expect upon his return there will be some muscle atrophy and his numbers will not be what we have come to expect from Alex

….has anyone noticed Ryan Sweeney is leading the AL in hits this spring, and with Oakland’s lack of punch he could find his way into the lineup on a regular basis.  Keep him in mind for AL only leagues and deep mixed

….Jason Lane has resurfaced in Toronto and has 3 spring home runs!  He was a decent option only a few years ago and his performance might be worth monitoring

super prospect Brandon Wood has only 1 strikeout in 17 at bats!  He is batting .471 and with his ADP at 341 he could be a steal on draft day

….in the battle of the Texas backstops J. Saltalamacchia is dominating Teargarden with a tune of .438 BA 3BB 4K to Taylor’s .200 0BB 5K

…..On the downside the highly regarded Chris Davis leads the AL with 11K’s in 22 AB.  Davis is going very early in most drafts because of his power potential at a weak position.  Something to consider would be taking a player like Adrian Beltre and his 20-25 homeruns up to TEN rounds later!  Any player who strikes out that much is going to need time to adjust at the big league level

….Mike Jacobs new team has not helped his numbers, he is batting .208 for his new team

Andruw Jones has continued where he left off last year and is batting .273 with a ton of strikeouts, avoid Jones in all mixed formats

…..Kelly Shoppach has done little to help his case of stealing AB’s away from Travis Hafner, Ryan Garko andVictor Martinez in what could be some kind of rotation for him and V-Mart, Shoppach is batting an awful .133 and because of his position still warrants consideration on draft day in deep mixed leagues and AL only formats

…Alex Gordon just can’t seem to get it in the bigs, his ADP is 176 and for that spot there are better options later on like the previously mentioned Beltre

….Remember Phil Hughes?  How does 6 strike outs in 5 IP with a 0.00 ERA sound?  Hughes has fallen to a 343 ADP and could be a steal on draft day pitching for the Yankees

….Francisco Liriano one year removed from surgery is doing a fine job with 7K to 1BB; he will regain the form of two years ago.  Draft him as a fantasy ace for the K’s, era and whip

…..another super prospect from the Tampa organization Jeff Niemann has had a stellar spring with a 7:1 K:BB ratio, he doesn’t warrant any consideration at this point but if a starter struggles, get’s hurt or David Price stays in the bullpen Niemann might get the call

….John Danks get’s very little respect among fantasy owners being drafted behind the likes of Jeff Weaver and Zach Grienke (who I am a fan of) but Danks has continued where he left off last year with 6K’s and no walks this spring, oh ya his era is 0.00

….and two more words for you “Erik Bedard” has been pretty good, that could be the steal of the draft

….On the downside Justin Verlander remains very hittable and has more BB than K’s this spring

…Jeremy Sowers went from big-time prospect to big-time nothing, he warrants no consideration in any format

….three guys with very high hopes coming into this spring were Cliff Lee, Joba Chamberlain and Brandon Morrow, what they all have in common is an 18.00 era through 1 inning pitched.  Now we shouldn’t let spring stat’s influence our decisions that much but they should make us evaluate our personal rankings. Last year Cliff Lee was lights out during the spring, he should still be drafted in all formats I just think he falls into the 2nd tier of pitchers, not an ace.  Joba has had trouble staying healthy in the past so it will be interesting to see how he does as a starter and Morrow will move into the closer role if he falters, Morrow is the most intriguing of them all.  You can get Morrow late and worst case scenario is he racks up 25 saves in 4 months because he wasn’t a good starter, definately worth a late round pick.

That was quite a glance, and one more time…keep an eye on Bedard.

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Overrated and Underrated in the draft.

By notebookguy

Every year there are players that go far too early in a draft and there are players that seem to slip too late.  This list will help you avoid the pitfalls of wasting a high pick on an overhyped player and help you find talented players  late in the draft. I’ve done hundreds of mock drafts this offseason, as my beyond patient girlfriend can begrudgingly attest to, and these are the overrated/undderrated players I’ve identified.

Talk of rounds picked in this article is based on a 5×5 15 team format.  I will give you an Average Draft Position of a player, this is the number pick the player goes at on average at a draft at mockdraftcentral.com.  Average Draft Position(ADP) Courtesy of mockdraftcentral.com.

Overrated:

Josh Hamilton, OF, Rangers, ADP 11.53

He is an immensely talented player but injuries and off the field issues make him far too big a risk to spend your 1st round pick on.  He regularly goes ahead of great bats such as Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira, and Lance Berkman in drafts and those players  have none of the headaches Hamilton brings to the table.  In the first round go safe, Hamilton’s upside is great, but you know you’ll get 1st round production out of those 3, you can’t say the same for Josh, you may, but why roll the dice?

Raul Ibanez, OF, Phillies, ADP 116.15

A late 7th/early 8th round pick in a 15 team draft for Raul Ibanez is not a good move for your team.  I understand that he is moving to the band box in Philly but he’s 37 years old, people don’t have huge years at 37 years old unless it’s chemically induced.  Also going to the NL eliminates the possibility of him DH’ing to give the legs a break, increasing the possibility of a DL stint, obviously his age plays into that as well.  He goes around the same time as guys like Johnny Damon, Torii Hunter, and Andre Ethier and goes at least a round before guys like Brad Hawpe, Jason Werth, and Pat Burrell.  All these players bring alot more to the table than Ibanez, let someone else make the mistake.

Miguel Tejeda, SS, Astros, ADP 116.43

I will not go anywhere near this guy at all, never mind in the 7th or 8th round.  An “alleged” roid guy, an old 32 years old, and his possible deportation for legal troubles mixed in with steadily declining numbers across the board for years render this former MVP undraftable in my book.

Joba Chamberlain, SP, Yankees, ADP 99.56

I think Joba has great potential, but some arm injuries very early in his career, probably due to being jerked between the pen and the rotation, make him extremely iffy to make 30 starts, I think he makes closer to 20.  A 20 start number 2 in your rotation isn’t going to help you win too many leagues.  He goes the same time as guys  like John Lackey and Felix Hernandez who are much safer bets and put up great numbers.  Joba goes ahead of guys like Dice, Lester, Zambrano, M. Cain, and J. Vazquez all starters you know you’ll get 30 starts out of with very good numbers, pass on Joba.

Rich Harden, SP, Cubs, ADP 119.8

Similar argument that I made for Joba except this guy has a much longer history of injuries making it more likely for that trend to continue.  The spot where he goes in the draft will likely make him the number 2 starter on a team, way too important a spot to take a risk on.

Underrated:

Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox, ADP 59.21

Getting Ellsbury at the end of the 5th/beginning of the 6th round is an absolute steal.  Jacoby is Jose Reyes in CF.  A projected line of .290+ BA, 10-15 HR’s, 110+ R’s, 70+ RBI’s, 50+ SB’s is very reasonable and he may exceed those numbers.  I understand Reyes has the position advantage over Ellsbury but I think other than position, they’ll end up looking very similar.  Snag Ellsbury this year in the 3rd or 4th while you can, he’ll be a 1st or 2nd round pick next year.

Johnny Damon, OF, Yankees, ADP 114.13

The only Yankee OF of any worth this year is a great value in the 8th round.  He is the only OF in the Bronx that will get 550+ AB’s and he’s a consistent 5 category contributor.  His age is starting to factor in at 35 years old, but he’s averaged 560 AB’s over the last 3 years, going to the DL for the first time in his career last year, I think he’s got a year or 2 of good production left in him before he really starts breaking down.  He’s going to be hitting at the top of a very good lineup and has averaged .286, 18 HR’s, 71 RBI’s, 101 R’s, and 27 SB’s in pinstripes over the last 3 years.  Being a Sox fan, I don’t like the man personally, but you can’t ignore that type of 5 category production and Damon should be going earlier in the draft than he is.

Erik Bedard, SP, Mariners, ADP 179.6

Remember this guy?  Bedard was probably a top 5 pitcher on most lists this time last year, now he’s going in the late 12th/early 13th round of drafts.  I know missing last year is the cause of this and a shoulder injury is nothing to ignore, so be sure to keep an eye on him in Spring Training.  Reports so far are encouraging.  Keep this in mind:  13 W’s, 3.16 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, with 221 K’s all in the AL East in 2007, a great year for a pitcher in a bear of a division.  Well worth a shot as a number 3 or 4 starter, but know the risks and pay attention to his Spring.  You could get an ace in the 2nd half of your draft.

Adrian Beltre, 3B, Mariners, ADP 201.01

Now I realize the chemically induced Dodger year is far behind Beltre but he is an absolute bargain at 3B in the 14th round.  Beltre regularly goes 100+ picks after Aubrey Huff, Ryan Zimmerman, and Edwin Encarnacion, he is more than capable of matching the numbers of these players 6+ rounds after they come off the board.  Don’t forget that Beltre is in his free agent year, his other walk year he was an MVP candidate, don’t expect those numbers, but a line of .270, 25 HR’s, 90 R’s, 100 RBI’s, and 10 SB’s is attainable.

Chien-Ming Wang, SP, Yankees, ADP 218.6

The 15th round is far too late for the Yankees number 2 starter to go in the draft.  He is not going to give you big K numbers but 18 W’s, sub 4 ERA, and a good WHIP make him very valuable.  I expect his K’s to keep moving up as well.  His injury was a broken foot which is fully healed and he’s looked good so far this spring.  Scoop him up as your 4th starter and get 2nd starter production.

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