2008 Busts….2009 Musts

by mrCane

Last year there were a number of players who broke your heart shortly after the season started.  Some of those players are worth the price of admission this year, some stay clear of, a couple you might not even remember.

In no particular order;

David Ortiz – Big Papi started slow and never got going.  The wrist injury didn’t help matters.  Fantasy Advice:  Papi should be good for about 30 homeruns and 100 rbi with a .290 batting average…he is on the decline.

Curtis Granderson – Had a difficult start to the season but finished strong.  I don’t buy into Granderson, he can’t hit lefties, he’s 28 and is getting slower?  Fantasy Advice:  Don’t buy, his price will be too high for what you get.

Garret Atkins – Uhhgg!  He’ll play because Todd Helton needs a new back.   His walk to strikeout ration plummeted last year (40/100).  Fantasy Advice:  Don’t buy.

Aaron Harrang – Had some injuries to deal with and never seemed to right the ship.  Fantasy Advice – He’ll be back, buy buy buy low.

Johnny Cueto – Remember the press around this kid after spring training?  He’s got a great arm, just needs experience.  Fantasy Advice – Take a chance, he’ll be a bargain.

Alex Gordon – I don’t know what to say about Gordon.  He has tons of talent but like Granderson he can’t hit lefties well.  Fantasy Advice – take him at a good price but he might be expensive because of name recognition.

Delmon Young – Fantasy Advice – stay away

Phil Hughes – Disappointing year for the talented righty.  Fantasy Advice:  Buy low and watch your investment soar.

Howie Kendrick – People have so many expectations for Kendrick, not me.  Fantasy Advice – pick him up off waivers in July when comes off the DL.

Adam Miller – He was on everyone’s radar last year but this year he’s not on anyone’s.  Fantasy Advice:   Keep track of what he does this spring, he could end up contributing if he get’s the walks under control.

Other guys who were busts last year and who’s production I don’t see turning around;  Rickie Weeks, Eric Byrnes, Todd Helton, Dontrelle Willis, Carlos Guillen, Jeff Francoer, Ryan Zimmerman.

Some names from this year who will be drafted too high and should be considered possible busts;

Ian Kinsler, Chris Davis, Joe Mauer, Nate McClouth, Fafael Furcal, Carlos Pena,  Dan Uggla, Carlos Delgado, Rich Harden, AJ Burnett, Jose Valverde, Joba Chamberlain and Derek Jeter.

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7 Comments

Filed under Draft Position

7 responses to “2008 Busts….2009 Musts

  1. Some of my favorite players on that list.

    It shows how the game has changed when a guy who is “good for 30HR 100RBI” is on the decline.

    Helton was on a pace to be one of the great hitters ever, but the injury thing has slowed him.

    Some folks know of my man-love for the D-Train. I used to love to watch him pitch, and his battle with Carpenter for the Cy Young in 2005 was fun to watch.

    Mauer will be taken high off of his big year, but it looks like an iffy situation.

    As far as Harang goes, he’ll have to prove it to me. He might fill a roster spot, but he makes me bite my nails.

    Zimmerman is another guy who needs to show something this year. The Nats aren’t a bad ballclub, and they’re a Hell of a lot better if he hits. It’s a big year for him, for sure.

  2. tallkid1

    Stay away from Adam Miller in your draft. At best he’ll be a setup man in Cleveland. He’s a guy to track to see what’s happening but he’s not the prospect he once was.

  3. mrcane

    Lets go with a better Miller, how about Andrew Miller of Florida. He was another guy on peoples radar last year. He moved to the bullpen to limit his pitch count but is guaranteed a rotation spot this year.

    He is another guy that wont be sought after but could pay dividends in the end.

  4. nichols33

    Since when is 28 old?!? Granderson certainly has his troubles with lefties, but he had 407 ABs versus righties last year and only a 100 something versus the southpaws. He missed the first month or so of the season due to a broken finger if I recall. While I think Granderson is going to early in drafts, I do like him this year.

    Quick comments on the other guys here:
    – love Hughes if he has a spot
    – really sour on Atkins, Delmon Young, Kendrick

  5. mrcane

    The reference to Granderson’s age wasn’t to imply he is old, but that at 28 and running less is not acceptable. Granderson will never be elite if he can’t solve lefties because he’ll get 150AB (.260BA)to righties that will be way below industry standards for an “elite” player. Where people are drafting Granderson would be considered elite. On a side note, in 2007 he batted .344 against righties, in 2008 he batted .288, thats why 2007 looked so good in the eyes of fantasy ballers.

  6. tallkid1

    I think you have to cut Granderson some slack since he was coming back from injury (granted it was a hand injury). He’s not horrible against lefties (for a lefty hitter anyway) and as Nichols33 points out he has 75% of his PA’s against righties anyway. Maybe he won’t steal 30 every year but he’s a solid guy for BA, RS and has some pop. I think his season will be somewhere in between 07 and 08 – which still makes him a top 20 OF.

  7. shelly

    I don’t think we can dismiss the 25% of at bats against lefties. That number could easily rise to 30% which means we would have 165AB against lefties and 385 against righties. The less your on base, the less balls you put in play, the worse your numbers. He isn’t a great on base guy to begin with. Now I’m not saying I wouldn’t want Granderson on my team but he is not worth the current ADP of 55. I would take Ellsbury, Quentin, Abreau, Damon, Dye, Pence, Victorino before him. All these guys are rated lower than him on the Average Draft Position according to ESPN. I think if he goes somewhere around 80 thats fine, but to go in top 50?
    My fantasy advice: In a points league Granderson has more worth than a 5×5. A points league allows him to get points for all the doubles and triples he hits. In a points league consider him maybe top 60 and in a 5×5 its got to be top 80-100. Granderson is a top 25-30 outfielder, not 20 in my opinion.

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