Jimmy Rollins….The 6th Best Pick?

by mrCane

Let’s think about this for a minute.  We are taking Hanley and Reyes in every draft in the top 4 picks.  We take them because their numbers are spectacular, they’re young, and in all the magazines thats what they’re ranked.  What about Rollins?  Compare the projected numbers side by side with Hanley…

Rollins      .285avg     23 hr   125 rs   85 rb  40sb

Hanely     .310avg   30hr   120rs  95rb  30sb

throw Grady Sizemore in the mix who has consitently been the 5th or 6th in most drafts..

Grady  .275avg  30hr  85rb  35sb  110rs…..those are almost exactly what Rollins is expected to do AND Rollins plays shortstop, typically a more difficult position to fill. 

Let’s look at it from another prospective….after the big three shortstops we have to chose from Derek Jeter (whos numbers are similar to Mike Aviles), Rafeal Furcal (coming off back surgery) and Stephen Drew a far cry from Rollins.   It has come to my attention that far too often we take for gold what is stated by the the majority, when in fact we are just as capable of looking at the numbers and making a reasonable decision. 

It is reasonable to say that Rollins can hit more home runs than Jose Reyes, steal more than Hanley Ramirez, have a better batting average then Grady Sizemore while leading MLB in runs scored….why are we so willing to take Sizemore, Ryan Braun and Miguel Cabrera before him?  Go against the grain, do what’s right, pick Rollins because “I guarantee he will help you win the league”.

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4 Comments

Filed under Draft Position

4 responses to “Jimmy Rollins….The 6th Best Pick?

  1. True, Grady and Jimmy are a dead-heat in most statistical categories and there’s a bigger drop-off in shortstops than in outfielders, and that’s probably where most people think Grady is the obvious 6th pick (or so).
    Although it has yet to be proved that Jimmy can hit for a higher BA than Grady. They’re both around .281 over the past 4 years.

    True, the drop-off in shortstops is bigger than the drop-off in outfielders, and although Grady’s numbers will probably earn him an MVP (this year?) Jimmy has shown that he is the MVP – in real baseball too!

    • mrcane

      I think we all get to influenced by what the masses say, and most people have Jimmy 8-10. If you put his numbers up to others they are comparable. Would it suprise you to see him have a line of .287 26hr 131 rs 90rb 44sb…I wouldn’t. I don’t think it will quite that good across the board but he could be close.

      Here is another interesting fact. In a 15 team 5×5 league I was in last year the top scorer in RS was 50 higher than RBI. So in this league runs were more valuable than RBI, usually we think the other way around wanting all of the guys who drive the runs in.

      Switch the RS and RBI so its 130RBI and 90RS and all of a sudden Rollins is the 1st pick. We need to be more objective about what numbers we look at and how we analyze them.

  2. That’s why I thought Aaron Rowand was so much better off in the Phillies lineup than the Giants. In Philly, he moved the lineup around. In SF, he was still the same player, but the lineup wasn’t able to move him around like they did in Philly.
    His runs scored were cut in half in San Francisco.

    Sometimes, it’s all about the lineup. Jimmy hits leadoff in one of the best lineups in baseball.

  3. notebookguy

    Great post cane. JRoll was one of the top 2 or 3 fantasy players in all the game in his MVP year of 2007. He’s still in his prime and should be recovered from the injuries of last year. Expect a big rebound year from the World Champs SS.

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