Big time players with question marks.

By notebookguy

The first 5 rounds of any draft is key to building the core of your offense and pitching staff.  Teams that lose one of their top 5 picks have a hole to dig themselves out of and though it can be accomplished, it’s easier to do your best to avoid being in that situation.  Here are some players that will go in the first 5 rounds of your draft that may dissapoint.  Average Draft Position(ADP) courtesy of

Alex Rodriguez, 3B, Yankees, ADP 2.85

I have Arod ranked 5th overall right now behind Hanely, Pujols, Wright, and Reyes.  I did have him 2nd overall behind Hanley until the steroids story broke and now there is word that he’s having trouble with his hip.  The pressure of the steroid story and the hip injury make me shy away from him slightly and go with a surer bets in the top 4.  I’m not saying avoid Arod, I would take him if he slipped to 5, but be wary of his situation with steroids and keep a close eye on the hip news.

Manny Ramirez, OF, Dodgers, ADP 22.85

The idiot savant of hitting turns 37 in May and plays in cavernous Dodger Stadium.  Without the luxury of DH’ing to give his old legs a break you can expect Manny to miss time at various points in the season with a strained hamstring or sore knee as he did in Boston.  Don’t expect a full season like his final 2 months for the Dodgers, you will be dissapointed.  Take players like Prince Fielder, Carlos Beltran, Justin Morneau, Jason Bay, and Carlos Lee before Manny, you’ll get more production and less headaches.  I’d wait till the 3rd round on Manny but he probably won’t make it out of the 2nd round.

Cole Hamels, SP, Phillies, ADP 40.58

The World Series Champion’s ace thew 265 innings last year including the postseason, an astounding 80 innings more than he pitched in any other season in his career.  This is an extremely large jump in innings for such a young hurler and history tells us that players with this big a jump don’t fair as well the following season.  He is only 25 years old and he is one of the best pitchers in the game, but don’t be surprised if that work load catches up with him a bit this year and the numbers are a little down or he misses some time.  I think he’ll be one of the best pitchers in the game for many years, but this year I’d proceed with caution.  Alternatives could be Brandon Webb, Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, or Dan Haren safer bets with consistent innings over the last 3 years.

Jake Peavy, SP, Padres, ADP 45.21

Peavy was limited to 27 starts in 2008 due to elbow inflammation, 2 words you never want to hear in connection with your ace.  Combine the recent elbow woes with a terrible offensive team behind him and you can see why I think Peavy will dissapoint those that take him as their ace.  Webb, Halladay, CC, and/or Haren are better alternatives then the Pads ace.

Vlad Guerrero, OF, Angels, ADP 42.28

It’s tough to put him on this list.  He guts it out almost every year with knee, shoulder, and back problems getting 520+ AB’s every year he’s been an Angel but eventually the injuries pile up too high and the player succumbs.  I’m afraid that’s where we are at with Vlad the Impaler.  Offseason knee surgery has him taking it slow this spring training and he lost his protection in the lineup with Mark Teixeira cashing his checks in the Bronx.  So a weaker lineup, offseason surgery, and another year off the calender make Vlad riskier than ever.  Great alternatives to Vlad are Nick Markakis, Curtis Granderson, Alex Rios, Corey Hart, Carlos Quentin, and Shane Victorino.  All are younger and in or entering their primes, Vlad is well past his.



Filed under Draft Position

13 responses to “Big time players with question marks.

  1. Vlad is definitely on the downside of a great career. I too would take Markakis over him. Victorino, however is going to have to prove that he has achieved elite status off of a career year in 2008. He has something to prove.

    Hamels. I’m old enough to remember when pitchers threw complete games (that’s the CG stat, for you kids) so 265 innings shouldn’t be a big deal, but it is sadly. Cole is tougher than he lets on, and I think he’ll have a big year.

    Manny being Manny, I don’t think he makes it too deep into the second round in most drafts.

  2. dtb23

    Great post…

    Cole Hamels took the mound for the first time earlier today. He pitched two scoreless innings, allowed two hits and walked a batter.

    The Phils will be extremely cautious with their young phenom during the exhibition season but come April they will rely heavily on his left arm.

    Last year’s workload is a concern despite the fact that Cole makes pitching look so damn easy. I believe Hamels will be a top 10 SP in 2009.

  3. nichols33

    I didn’t realize Cole threw that many innings last year!?! That’s a huge red flag.
    Some other young phenoms that had a huge innings jump over 07:
    Jon Lester – 74 innings over 07
    Ricky Nolasco – 50 innings over 07
    Tim Lincecum – 50 innings over 07
    Clayton Kershaw – 49 innings over 07
    Mike Pelfrey – 48 innings over 07

  4. Red flag? How about “Staff ace?” Or “Cy Young candidate?”
    I’m sick of hearing about innings and pitch counts.
    So, you’re saying Lincecum and Nolasco are risks because they threw an extra 50 innings? Holy crap. Throw the F***ing ball and stop counting.

    I hate frigging pitch counts!

    • nichols33

      Unfortunately, that’s the way the game is nowadays.

      • Guys are supposed to be in better shape. They throw less games than Koufax and Marichal. The money makes the count critical.
        Who says 100 pitches means anything other than it’s a round number?

        Maybe 118 or 125 pitches? What does an arm know from 100? Stop coddling these guys and work them like Seaver, Drysdale and Bunning worked.

        Pussies. 🙂

  5. dtb23

    Pitchers throw more innings when their team makes it into the playoffs. Nichols33 you wouldn’t know about that.

    • nichols33

      If Phillies fans didn’t already suck, now their ego is polluted with a World Championship. For fantasy purposes you need to look beyond the uniform and objectively analyze your favorite teams players. Saying Raul Ibanez is going to win the MVP, Howard will finish 2nd, Utley 3rd, Rollins 4th and Cole Hamels is going to win the Cy Young just makes you look foolish.
      Hamels pitch count from last year scares me, but I would jump at the opportunity to get him in any league. In fact I have him and Lincecum as 2 of my 5 keepers in a 5×5 league. I’m not going to hide the fact that I’m nervous about both of their pitch counts last year, but I’ll be estatic with my pitching staff even if I round out with Jaime Moyer, Joe Blanton and Kyle Kendrick. Oh ya, I forgot, Moyer is underrated and Joe Blanton was an ace after the trade to the Phillies so there is no way I’ll get those guys with late picks………
      Being a Mets fan I can sit back and objectively analyze the boys from Queens. Reyes, Wright, Beltran and Santana are studs. You don’t need a Mets fan to tell you that. All 4 will go in the 1st 2 rounds of most leagues. Delgado I think is due to have worse season than last year, but you couldn’t tell from his spring. Castillo is a fantasy non-factor as well as Schieder. I think Daniel Murphy is a sleeper pick especially if he is not platooning with Tatis and Church should be nothing more than a back-up for fantasy leagues unless it’s a NL only league. Maine, Pelfrey and Ol. Perez are all useful to any fantasy team but Maine’s injury troubles, Pelfrey’s high innings jump year over year and Oliver Perez’s inconsistency certainly cause me to be cautious when drafting. I think KRod is getting bashed a bit too much due to his lower velocity, higher WHIP and ERA even though he broke the save record. It wasn’t all due just to his high number of save opportunities, he did save 89% of his saves, behind only future hall-of-famer Brad Lidge, Soria & Rivera.
      Now reply and tell me have Utley, Howard, Hamels, Rollins, Werth, Victorino, Ibanez, Lidge and Myers should all go in the top 40 and Carrasco and Donald are the two best prospects in baseball.

      • OK, where does it say Ibanez is the MVP? Is that comment awaiting moderation?

        Sorry if our World (*******) Championship clouds our vision of being the best team in baseball, but Mets fans will have to deal with it, I suppose.

        KRod is a modern-day Billy Wagner. His best days are behind him. How nice of the Mets to provide for his family. Do they get his salary as a charitible contribution off their taxes?

        The only thing that should scare you about Hamels is his awesome talent. Pitch count, schmitch count.

      • dtb23

        Wow, someone has some built up aggression…

        I said Hamels was a top 10 SP, do you disagree?

        What exactly are you claiming was foolish and non-objective?

      • nichols33

        No, I agree. Hamels is a top 10 pitcher. I have him #7 after Santana, Sabathia, Lincecum, Webb, Halladay, Haren.
        Foolish and non-objective is thinking every Phillie is the 2nd coming of Hank Aaron.

      • notebookguy

        Anthony, let me get this straight because I am confused. K-Rod’s deal was 3 years for 36 million, 12 mill a year and Raul Ibanez signed a 3 year deal for 30 million. How can you possibly say the Mets signed a bad deal when K-Rod is one of the top 5 closers in the game for almost the same money as the Phils gave an aging corner OF. Ibanez will be 40 years old being paid 10 mill for 350 AB’s at the end of his deal. K-Rod will still be closing games and be one of the best, not to mention he’ll only be 30 at the end of his deal. The Mets are smart to get a guy in his prime, when he’s one of the best at his craft, that’s the best time to do it. The Phils gave a 37 year old corner OF, who are a dime a dozen, a bad contract. The Phils should’ve saved 25 mill and brought Abreu back for a year, that’s a smarter deal.

  6. I don’t think you can compare contracts for closers and outfielders.

    Suddenly, Phillies fans are foolish and non-objective. I guess that’s what winning does for us.

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